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Individual Expectations and Aggregate Macro Behavior
Assenza, Tiziana; Heemeijer, Peter; Hommes, Cars; … - 2013
The way in which individual expectations shape aggregate macroeconomic variables is crucial for the transmission and effectiveness of monetary policy. We study the individual expectations formation process and the interaction with monetary policy, within a standard New Keynesian model, by means...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326142
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Who should pay for certification?
Stahl, Konrad; Strausz, Roland - 2011
Who does, and who should initiate costly certification by a third party under asymmetric quality information, the buyer or the seller? Our answer - the seller - follows from a nontrivial analysis revealing a clear intuition. Buyer-induced certification acts as an inspection device,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010306003
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Price Competition with Information Disparities in a Vertically Differentiated Duopoly
Cavaliere, Alberto - 2004
differentiation, informed consumers exert a positive externality on the purchasers of the high quality good as its price decreases … when the share of informed consumers decreases. Considering also that the price of the low quality good increases with the … with pessimistic consumers we can explain demand collapses and insensitivity to price changes due to consumer suspicions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011324907
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Prognose des CO2-Zertifikatepreisrisikos
Dannenberg, Henry; Ehrenfeld, Wilfried - 2008
Modeling the price risk of CO2 certificates is one important aspect of integral corporate risk management related to …. We assume that the certificate price is determined by the expected marginal CO2 abatement costs prevailing at the current … abatement costs may occur leading to shifts in the price level. The aim of the work is to model the erratic changes of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010269911
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ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: ausgewählte methodische Aufsätze aus dem ifo Schnelldienst
Abberger, Klaus; Flaig, Gebhard; Nierhaus, Wolfgang - 2007
die Preis- und Volumenrechnungen in den Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen sowie die Besonderheiten der harmonisierten …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011698389
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ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II
Nierhaus, Wolfgang (contributor);  … - 2016
Das ifo Institut begleitet seit seiner Gründung im Jahr 1949 das aktuelle Wirtschaftsgeschehen durch seine regelmäßigen Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturprognosen. Im Jahr 2007 hat das ifo Institut zur methodischen Basis seiner Konjunkturforschung einen ersten Sammelband mit ausgewählten...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011698425
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Lasso-type and heuristic strategies in model selection and forecasting
Savin, Ivan; Winker, Peter - 2012
Several approaches for subset recovery and improved forecasting accuracy have been proposed and studied. One way is to apply a regularization strategy and solve the model selection task as a continuous optimization problem. One of the most popular approaches in this research field is given by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010291802
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Forecasting euro exchange rates: How much does model averaging help?
Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus - 2007
We analyze the performance of Bayesian model averaged exchange rate forecasts for euro/US dollar, euro/Japanese yen, euro/Swiss franc and euro/British pound rates using weights based on the out-of-sample predictive likelihood. The paper also presents a simple stratified sampling procedure in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293409
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Modelling and forecasting oil prices: The role of asymmetric cycles
Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus; Jumah, Adusei; Karbuz, Sohbet - 2007
of the cycle depends on past oil price observations. We show that oil price forecasts improve significantly when this …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293428
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Optimizing time-series forecasts for inflation and interest rates using simulation and model averaging
Jumah, Adusei; Kunst, Robert M. - 2008
Motivated by economic-theory concepts - the Fisher hypothesis and the theory of the term structure - we consider a … small set of simple bivariate closed-loop time-series models for the prediction of price inflation and of long- and short …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294000