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In this paper we analyze exemplarily the volatility of the internal rates of return of the German pension system over the life-cycle of an individual born in 1957. The outcome is compared to an alternative defined-contribution or defined-benefit policy. Based on the actual data, our resultsshow...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010300850
downpayment requirements? They distinguish between an early period, the 1950s though the 1970s, when household income risk was … relatively small and loan-to-value ratios were low, and a late period, the 1980s through today, with high household income risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010280939
Endogenous Uncertainty is that component of economic risk and market volatility which is propagated within the economy … by the beliefs and actions of agents. The theory of Rational Belief (see Kurz [1994]) permits rational agents to hold … structure of market expectations. To make the case for this theory we present a single RBE model, which builds on developments …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011608491
This paper addresses two issues. The first is whether demographic change was plausibly responsible for the run-up in stock prices over the last decade, and whether the attempt by the baby boom cohort to cash out of its investments in the period 2010-30 might lead to an “asset meltdown.” The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010318880
momentum factors according to Carhart (1997). These risk factors from the four-factor model allow us to estimate more reliable … risk-adjusted returns than in the restrictive one-factor model based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model. In both the US and … to insignificant abnormal returns when all four risk factors are considered so that we find no evidence that SRI is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294388
This paper employs the unrestricted extended constant conditional correlation GARCH specification proposed in Conrad and Karanasos (2008) to examine the intertemporal relationship between the uncertainties of inflation and output growth in the US. We find that inflation uncertainty effects...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011422179
This paper proposes an explanation of the shifts in the volatility of exchange rate returns that relies on standard present value exchange rate models. Agents are uncertain about the true data generating model and deal with the model uncertainty by making inference on the models and their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010266075
We revisit the role of time in measuring the price impact of trades using a new empirical method that combines spread decomposition and dynamic duration modeling. Previous studies which have addressed the issue in a vector-autoregressive framework conclude that times when markets are most active...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010308551
Any measure of unobserved inflation uncertainty relies on specific assumptions which are most likely not fulfilled completely. This calls into question whether an individual measure delivers a reliable signal. To reduce idiosyncratic measurement error, we propose using common information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010312179
This paper examines the evolution of risk in the U.S. financial sector using firm-level equity market data from 1975 to … other policymakers concerned with the origins of financial sector risk and with the links between the financial markets and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010283353