Anytime an individual makes a cash payment, s/he needs to think about theamount to be paid, the coins and notes which are available, and the amount ofchange. For central banks and retail stores, for example, it is of interest to un-derstand how this individual choice process works. The...

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the heterogeneity of recessions inmonthly U.S. coincident and leading indicator variables. Univariate Markovswitchingmodels indicate that it is appropriate to allow for two distinct recessionregimes, corresponding with ‘mild’ and ‘severe’...

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the heterogeneity of recessions in monthly U.S. coincident and leading indicator variables. Univariate Markovswitching models indicate that it is appropriate to allow for two distinct recession regimes, corresponding with 'mild' and 'severe'...

This paper revisits inflation forecasting using reduced-form Phillips curve forecasts, that is, inflation forecasts that use activity and expectations variables. We propose a Phillips-curve-type model that results from averaging across different regression specifications selected from a set of...

This paper revisits inflation forecasting using reduced form Phillips curve forecasts, i.e., inflation forecasts using activity and expectations variables. We propose a Phillips curve-type model that results from averaging across different regression specifications selected from a set of...

We examine recursive out-of-sample forecasting of monthly postwarU.S. core inflation and log price levels. We use theautoregressive fractionally integrated moving average model withexplanatory variables (ARFIMAX). Our analysis suggests asignificant explanatory power of leading indicators...

Many macroeconomic forecasts and forecast updates like those from IMF and OECD typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast updates are progressive, forecast...