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Information aggregation in Poisson elections
Ekmekci, Mehmet; Lauermann, Stephan - In: Theoretical Economics 17 (2022) 1, pp. 1-23
The modern Condorcet jury theorem states that under weak conditions, when voters have common interests, elections will aggregate information when the population is large, in any equilibrium. Here, we study the performance of large elections with population uncertainty. We find that the modern...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013189048
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European inflation expectations dynamics
Slacalek, Jirka; Fritsche, Ulrich; Dovern, Jonas; … - 2005
expectation models, households in the sticky information environment update their expectations sporadically rather than … experts? inflation expectations, we find that the model adequately captures the dynamics of household inflation expectations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295782
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What's on their mind: do exchange rate forecasters stick to theoretical models?
Schröder, Michael; Dornau, Robert - 1999
Do financial market analysts use structural economic models when forecasting exchange rates? This is the leading … question analysed in this paper. In contrast to other studies we use expectations data instead of observable variables …. Therefore we analyse the implicit structural models forecasters have in mind when forming their exchange rate expectations. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010297610
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Optimistic, but not in control: Life-orientation and the theory of mixed control
Urbig, Diemo; Monsen, Erik - 2009
Why are some people more optimistic about their life than others? Literature on locus of control suggests that optimism is associated with the belief that one's life outcomes are controlled by internal factors, such as ability, instead of external factors, such as powerful others or chance....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010266644
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The effect of active labor market programs on not-yet treated unemployed individuals
van den Berg, Gerard J.; Bergemann, Annette; Caliendo, Marco - 2008
Labor market programs may affect unemployed individuals' behavior before they enroll. Such ex ante effects are hard to identify without model assumptions. We develop a novel method that relates self-reported perceived treatment rates and job-search behavioral outcomes, like the reservation wage,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010273921
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The threat effect of participation in active labor market programs on job search behavior of migrants in Germany
Bergemann, Annette; Caliendo, Marco; van den Berg, Gerard J. - 2011
Labor market programs may affect unemployed individuals' behavior before they enroll. Such ex ante effects may differ according to ethnic origin. We apply a novel method that relates self-reported perceived treatment rates and job search behavioral outcomes, such as the reservation wage or...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274689
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The effect of active labor market programs on not-yet treated unemployed individuals
van den Berg, Gerard J.; Bergemann, Annette; Caliendo, Marco - 2008
Labor market programs may affect unemployed individuals' behavior before they enroll. Such ex ante effects are hard to identify without model assumptions. We develop a novel method that relates self-reported perceived treatment rates and job-search behavioral outcomes, like the reservation wage,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010277327
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Expectations as reference points: Field evidence from experienced subjects in a competitive, high-stakes environment
Bartling, Björn; Brandes, Leif; Schunk, Daniel - 2012
We show that professional soccer players exhibit reference-dependent behavior during matches. Controlling for the state of the match and for unobserved heterogeneity, we show on a minute-by-minute basis that a player breaches the rules of the game, measured by the referee's assignment of cards,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010316909
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Expectations as reference points: Field evidence from experienced subjects in a competitive, high-stakes environment
Bartling, Björn; Brandes, Leif; Schunk, Daniel - 2012
We show that professional soccer players exhibit reference-dependent behavior during matches. Controlling for the state of the match and for unobserved heterogeneity, we show on a minute-by-minute basis that a player breaches the rules of the game, measured by the referee's assignment of cards,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282066
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Lasso-type and heuristic strategies in model selection and forecasting
Savin, Ivan; Winker, Peter - 2012
Several approaches for subset recovery and improved forecasting accuracy have been proposed and studied. One way is to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010291802