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The euro area Bank Lending Survey matters: empirical evidence for credit and output growth

de Bondt, Gabe; Maddaloni, Angela; Peydró, José-Luis; … - 2010

This study examines empirically the information content of the euro area Bank Lending Survey for aggregate credit and output growth. The responses of the lending survey, especially those related to loans to enterprises, are a significant leading indicator for euro area bank credit and real GDP...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605206

Towards a monthly business cycle chronology for the euro area

Mönch, Emanuel; Uhlig, Harald - 2005

This paper is an exercise in dating the Euro area business cycle on a monthly basis. Using a quite flexible interpolation routine. we construct several monthly series of Euro area GDP, and then apply the Bry-Boschan (1971) procedure. To account for the asymmetry in growth regimes and duration...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010319190

The role of financial frictions during the crisis: An estimated DSGE model

Merola, Rossana - 2013

After the recent banking crisis in 2008, financial market conditions have turned out to be a relevant factor for economic fluctuations. This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the impact of financial frictions on the U.S. business cycle. The analysis compares the original Smets and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011506769

Measuring the Business Cycle Similarity and Convergence Trends in the CEECs Towards the Eurozone with Respect to some Unclear Methodological Aspects

Rozmahel, Petr - 2009

discussion on the process of joining the Eurozone by the Czech Republic and other candidate countries. The paper provides an …. Measures of business cycle similarity are ordinarily used to evaluate preparedness of candidate countries to join the Eurozone …. The results indicate continuing convergence of the business cycle similarity between the candidate and Eurozone member …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011435274

Predicting recessions and recoveries in real time: The euro area-wide leading indicator (ALI)

de Bondt, Gabe; Hahn, Elke - 2010

This study develops a new monthly euro Area‐wide Leading Indicator (ALI) for the euro area business cycle. It derives the composite ALI by applying a deviation cycle methodology with a one‐sided band pass filter and choosing nine leading series. Our main findings are that i) the applied...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605292

New Paradigms in Monetary Theory and Policy?

Balling, Morten; Llewellyn, David T.; Orphanides, Athanasios - 2012

On 11-12 May 2011, SUERF and the Belgian Financial Forum, in association with the Brussels Finance Institute and the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) organized the 29th SUERF Colloquium “New Paradigms in Money and Finance?” All the papers in the present SUERF Study are based on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011689952

Futures contract rates as monetary policy forecasts

Ferrero, Giuseppe; Nobili, Andrea - 2008

The prices of futures contracts on short-term interest rates are commonly used by central banks to gauge market expectations concerning monetary policy decisions. Excess returns - the difference between futures rates and the realized rates - are positive, on average, and statistically...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605025

Inflation dynamics with labour market matching: assessing alternative specifications

Christoffel, Kai; Costain, James; de Walque, Gregory; … - 2009

This paper reviews recent approaches to modeling the labour market and assesses their implications for inflation dynamics through both their effect on marginal cost and on price-setting behaviour. In a search and matching environment, we consider the following modeling setups: right-to-manage...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605099

The Determinants of Part-Time Work in EU Countries : Empirical Investigations with Macro-Panel Data

Buddelmeyer, Hielke; Mourre, Gilles; Ward, Melanie E. - 2004

This paper aims to identify the contribution of the business cycle and structural factors to the development of part-time employment in the EU-15 countries, through the exploitation of both cross-sectional and time series variations over the past two decades. Key results include that the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010277065

The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, Intraindustry Trade, and EMU Enlargement

Fidrmuc, Jarko - 2001

This paper tests the endogeneity hypothesis of OCA criteria (Frankel and Rose, 1998) in a cross-section of OECD countries between 1990 and 1999. It is shown that intraindustry trade actually causes the convergence of business cycles, while there is no direct relation between business cycles and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010313398

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