Die Geldmenge M3 steigt seit einigen Jahren stärker, als es der Referenzwert der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) vorsieht. Die überschüssige Liquiditätsversorgung wird oftmals als Indikator für aufkommende Infl ationsgefahren interpretiert, denen die EZB möglichst frühzeitig durch...

Die aktuellen Finanzmarktturbulenzen wurden durch Entwicklungen im Immobiliensektor ausgelöst. Vor diesem Hintergrund analysiert dieser Beitrag den Zusammenhang zwischen den Immobilienpreisen und der Geldmengen- und Kreditvolumensentwicklung für den Zeitraum 1992 -2006 (westdeutsche...

Conventional Phillips-curve models that are used to estimate the output gap detect a substantial decline in potential output due to the present crisis. Using a multivariate state space model, we show that this result does not hold if the long run role of excess liquidity (that we estimate...

This paper analyses the relationship between the prevailing liquidity conditions (such as measures of money, credit and interest rates) and developments in asset prices from a monetary analysis perspective. After having identified periods of sustained excess liquidity, we analyse under which...

In this paper, we investigate how the dynamic effects of excess liquidity shocks on economic activity, asset prices and inflation differ over time. We show that the impact varies considerably over time, depends on the source of increased liquidity (M1, M3-M1 or credit) and the underlying state...

This paper decomposes the explained part of the CDS spread changes of 31 listed euro area banks according to various risk drivers. The choice of the credit risk drivers is inspired by the Merton (1974) model. Individual CDS liquidity and other market and business variables are identified to...

The trend in the world real interest rate for safe and liquid assets fluctuated close to 2 percent for more than a century, but has dropped significantly over the past three decades. This decline has been common among advanced economies, as trends in real interest rates across countries have...