Could a researcher or policy analyst use data reported from surveys of consumer confidence to improve forecasts of consumer spending? This issue has been examined in the literature previously, which reached the conclusion that consumer confidence helped improve the forecasts slightly. But that...

In this paper, we use the Wall Street Journal poll of FX forecasts to analyze how the group of forecasters form their expectations. One focus is whether forecasters build rational expectations. Furthermore, we analyze whether the group of forecasters can be regarded as homogeneous or...

This paper studies the signalling effect of the consumption-wealth ratio (cay) on German stock returns via vector error correction models (VECMs). The effect of cay on U.S. stock returns has been recently confirmed by Lettau and Ludvigson with a two-stage method. In this paper, performances of...

This paper analyzes how the implicit difference in time horizons between refugees and economic immigrants affects subsequent human capital investments and wage assimilation. The analysis uses the 1980/1990 Integrated Public Use Samples of the Census to study labor market outcomes of immigrants...

Using panel data taken from the NLSY, I perform the joint estimation of i) a reduced-form dynamic model of the transition from one grade level to the next with observed and unobserved heterogeneity, and ii) a flexible version of the celebrated Mincerian wage regression with skill heterogeneity,...

A key concern in estimating the effect of military service on civilian earnings is bias from unmeasured differences between military veterans and nonveterans. The effects of activeduty service are estimated using the 1986 and 1992 Reserve Components Surveys, which permit a matched comparison...

It is widely acknowledged that earnings subsidies promote employment by increasing rewards to labor market activity. This paper asks whether subsidies also affect job duration and wage growth. We provide an analytical framework that identifies causal links between earnings subsidies, job...

The labor market "quality" of immigrants is a subject of debate among immigration researchers, and a major public policy concern. However, traditional methods of measuring human capital are particularly difficult to apply to recently arrived immigrants. Many factors that have a negative effect...

We show that U.S. manufacturing wages during the Great Depression were importantly determined by forces on firms' intensive margins. Short-run changes in work intensity and the longer-term goal of restoring full potential productivity combined to influence real wage growth. By contrast, the...

We estimate a finite mixture dynamic programming model of schooling decisions in which the log wage regression function is set in a random coefficient framework. The model allows for absolute and comparative advantages in the labor market and assumes that the population is composed of 8 unknown...