Adaptive learning introduces persistence in the evolution of agents' beliefs over time. For applied purposes this is a convenient feature to help explain why economies present sluggish adjustments towards equilibrium. The pace of learning is directly determined by the gain parameter, which...

In the models of Young (1993a,b), boundedly rational individuals are recurrently matched to play a game, and they play myopic best replies to the recent history of play. It could therefore be an advantage to instead play a myopic best reply to the myopic best reply, something boundedly rational...

We introduce a new solution concept for games in extensive form with perfect information, valuation equilibrium, which is based on a partition of each player's moves into similarity classes. A valuation of a player is a real-valued function on the set of her similarity classes. In this...

We study how the use of judgement or “add-factors” in macroeconomic forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium outcomes when agents learn using recursive methods. We isolate conditions under which new phenomena, which we call exuberance equilibria, can exist in standard macroeconomic...

This essay links some of my own work on expectations, learning and bounded rationality to the inspiring ideas of Jean-Michel Grandmont. In particular, my work on consistent expectations and behavioral learning equilibria may be seen as formalizations of JMG's ideas of self-fulfilling mistakes....

This note evaluates how adaptive learning agents weigh different pieces of information when forming expectations with a recursive least squares algorithm. The analysis is based on a new and more general non-recursive representaion of the learning algorithm, namely, a penalized weighted least...

This paper evaluates how the way agents weight information when forming expectations can affect the econometric estimation of models with adaptive learning. One key new finding is that misspecification of the uncertainty about initial beliefs under constantgain least squares learning can...

This paper experimentally studies the role of associative memory for belief formation. Real-world information signals are often embedded in memorable contexts. Thus, today’s news, and the contexts they are embedded in, may cue the selective retrieval of similar past news and hence contribute...

This paper reviews the empirical literature on heterogeneous beliefs and asset price dynamics that challenges the traditional rational agent framework. Emphasis is given to the validation and estimation of (dynamic) heterogeneous agent models that have their roots in the agent-based literature....