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Assessing bias in the estimation of causal effects: Rosenbaum bounds on matching estimators and instrumental variables estimation with imperfect instruments

DiPrete, Thomas A.; Gangl, Markus - 2004

Propensity score matching provides an estimate of the effect of a 'treatment' variable on an outcome variable that is … largely free of bias arising from an association between treatment status and observable variables. However, matching methods … undermine the conclusions about causal effects from a matching analysis. Instrumental variables (IV) estimation provides an …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010304029

Causal effects of monetary shocks: semiparametric conditional independence tests with a multinomial propensity score

Angrist, Joshua D.; Kuersteiner, Guido M. - 2008

Macroeconomists have long been concerned with the causal effects of monetary policy. When the identification of causal effects is based on a selection-on-observables assumption, non-causality amounts to the conditional independence of outcomes and policy changes. This paper develops a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270625

Bandwidth selection and the estimation of treatment effects with unbalanced data

Galdo, Jose; Smith, Jeffrey A.; Black, Dan - 2007

using matching methods. Because precise estimation of the expected counterfactual is particularly important in regions …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276772

Monetary policy with forward-looking rules: The Swiss case

Cuche, Nicolas A. - 2000

We estimate monetary policy rules in Switzerland for 1981-1997. In addition to an inflation gap, we find that forward …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011430020

How much can we trust causal interpretations of fixed-effects estimators in the context of criminality?

Bjerk, David - 2009

Researchers are often interested in estimating the causal effect of some treatment on individual criminality. For example, two recent relatively prominent papers have attempted to estimate the respective direct effects of marriage and gang participation on individual criminal activity. One...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010271337

Causal inference by independent component analysis with applications to micro- and macroeconomic data

Moneta, Alessio; Entner, Doris; Hoyer, Patrik; Coad, Alex - 2010

Structural vector-autoregressive models are potentially very useful tools for guiding both macro- and microeconomic policy. In this paper, we present a recently developed method for exploiting non-Gaussianity in the data for estimating such models, with the aim of capturing the causal structure...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010269741

Alternative Indicator of Moneary Policy for a Small Open Economy

Cuche, Nicolas A. - 2000

We analyze several identification frameworks based on operating procedures to measure monetary policy in a small open economy. We use a two-stage non-recursive VAR model to identify monetary shocks. We construct then various overall monetary policy indicators based on different residuals...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011430022

Some variables are more worthy than others: New diffusion index evidence on the monitoring of key economic indicators

Armah, Nii Ayi; Swanson, Norman - 2011

Central banks regularly monitor select financial and macroeconomic variables in order to obtain early indication of the impact of monetary policies. This practice is discussed on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York website, for example, where one particular set of macroeconomic indicators is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282848

Maintaining low inflation: money, interest rates, and policy stance

Reynard, Samuel - 2007

This paper presents a systematic empirical relationship between money and subsequent prices and output, using US, euro area and Swiss data since the 1960-70s. Monetary developments, unlike interest rate stance measures, are shown to provide qualitative and quantitative information on subsequent...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604802

Monetary policy, inflation and economic growth in Pakistan: Exploring the co-integration and causality relationships

Chaudhry, Imran Sharif; Qamber, Yasmeen; Farooq, Fatima - In: Pakistan Journal of Commerce and Social Sciences (PJCSS) 6 (2012) 2, pp. 332-347

This paper investigates the long run and short run relationships of monetary policy, inflation and economic growth in Pakistan using co-integration and causality analysis during the period 0f 1972-2010. A large number of empirical studies on the relationships of monetary policy and inflation are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011938320

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