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Money growth and inflation: a regime switching approach
Amisano, Gianni; Fagan, Gabriel - 2010
We develop a time-varying transition probabilities Markov Switching model in which inflation is characterised by two regimes (high and low inflation). Using Bayesian techniques, we apply the model to the euro area, Germany, the US, the UK and Canada for data from the 1960s up to the present. Our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605253
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Futures contract rates as monetary policy forecasts
Ferrero, Giuseppe; Nobili, Andrea - 2008
The prices of futures contracts on short-term interest rates are commonly used by central banks to gauge market expectations concerning monetary policy decisions. Excess returns - the difference between futures rates and the realized rates - are positive, on average, and statistically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605025
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The ‘Great Moderation’ in the United Kingdom
Benati, Luca - 2007
We use a Bayesian time-varying parameters structural VAR with stochastic volatility for GDP deflator inflation, real GDP growth, a 3-month nominal rate, and the rate of growth of M4 to investigate the underlying causes of the Great Moderation in the United Kingdom. Our evidence points towards a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604815
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Warum die Volkswirtschaften der Eurozone den USA und Großbritannien seit der Finanzkrise hinterherhinken: Zur Rolle von Unterschieden in der Geld- und Fiskalpolitik
Heimberger, Philipp - 2016
Finanzkrise im Vergleich von Eurozone, USA und Großbritannien. Die Eurozone erholte sich seit 2010 deutlich schleppender als die … Ergebnis ist, dass der restriktivere Mix aus Geld- und Fiskalpolitik in der Eurozone die im Vergleich zu den USA und … institutionellen Rahmenbedingungen in der Eurozone hatte die Austeritätspolitik ab den Jahren 2010/2011 ausgeprägt negative Effekte auf …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012100198
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The international transmission of euro area monetary policy shocks
Jannsen, Nils; Klein, Melanie - 2011
This paper analyzes the international transmission effects of euro area monetary policy shocks in to other western European countries, namely the United Kingdom, Sweden, Switzerland, Denmark, and Norway. For this purpose, we use a structural VAR model of the euro area and augment it...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010285721
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Zinswende in den USA: Fluch oder Segen für die Konjunktur im Euroraum?
Rujin, Svetlana; Schmidt, Torsten - In: Wirtschaftsdienst 95 (2015) 3, pp. 186-191
eurozone economies along with the impact of the depreciation of the euro as a consequence of the recent ECB's quantitative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011773171
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Ökonomische Effekte eines Brexit auf die deutsche und europäische Wirtschaft
Felbermayr, Gabriel; Gröschl, Jasmin; Heiland, Inga; … - 2017
Am 29. März 2017 notifizierte die britische Regierung ihren Austrittswillen nach Art. 50 des EU-Vertrages bei der EU. Der Brexit ist somit offiziell eingeleitet. Am 29. April haben die Staats- und Regierungschefs beim Europäischen Rat nach Art. 50 EUV die Leitlinien für die Verhandlungen...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011815684
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Piece work pay and hourly pay over the cycle
Hart, Robert A. - 2006
This paper investigates the relative cyclical behavior of the pay of piece workers and hourly paid workers. It uses a unique data set of blue-collar workers in British engineering between 1926 and 1966. The statistics are obtained from the payrolls of firms belonging to the Engineering Employers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010267830
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The life-cycle and the business-cycle of wage risk: a cross-country comparison
Bayer, Christian; Juessen, Falko - 2009
This paper provides a cross-country comparison of life-cycle and business-cycle fluctuations in the dispersion of household-level wage innovations. We draw our inference from household panel data sets for the US, the UK, and Germany. First, we find that household characteristics explain about...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010271322
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Propping up Europe?
Pisani-Ferry, Jean; Wolff, Guntram B. - 2012
The Bank of England, the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) have responded to the crisis with exceptional initiatives resulting in a major increase in their balance sheets. After the ECB's end-2011 launch of three-year bank refinancing (LTRO), there has been speculation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293582