In this paper, we test two different kinds of bias; the favorite-longshot/favorite-underdog and the home team bias, and distinguish between the two, using a distinctive feature of the Australian Football League (AFL), that many games are played on neutral grounds. This is the first empirical...

Several approaches for subset recovery and improved forecasting accuracy have been proposed and studied. One way is to apply a regularization strategy and solve the model selection task as a continuous optimization problem. One of the most popular approaches in this research field is given by...

We reconsider the efficiency bound for the semi-parametric Mixed Proportional Hazard (MPH) model with parametric baseline hazard and regression function. This bound was first derived by Hahn (1994). One of his results is that if the baseline hazard is Weibull, the efficiency bound is singular,...

Elbers and Ridder (1982) identify the Mixed Proportional Hazard model by assuming that the heterogeneity has finite mean. Under this assumption, the information matrix of the MPH model may be singular. Moreover, the finite mean assumption cannot be tested. This paper proposes a new...

This paper examines the empirical analysis of treatment effects on duration outcomes from data that contain instrumental variation. We focus on social experiments in which an intention to treat is randomized and compliance may be imperfect. We distinguish between cases where the treatment starts...

We analyze the performance of Bayesian model averaged exchange rate forecasts for euro/US dollar, euro/Japanese yen, euro/Swiss franc and euro/British pound rates using weights based on the out-of-sample predictive likelihood. The paper also presents a simple stratified sampling procedure in the...

We propose a new time series model aimed at forecasting crude oil prices. The proposed specification is an unobserved components model with an asymmetric cyclical component. The asymmetric cycle is defined as a sine-cosine wave where the frequency of the cycle depends on past oil price...

We use data generated by a macroeconomic DSGE model to study the relative benefits of forecast combinations based on forecast-encompassing tests relative to simple uniformly weighted forecast averages across rival models. Assumed rival models are four linear autoregressive specifications, one of...

We consider a nonparametric test for the null of seasonal unit roots in quarterly time series that builds on the RUR (records unit root) test by Aparicio, Escribano, and Sipols. We find that the test concept is more promising than a formalization of visual aids such as plots by quarter. In order...