The 1987 market crash was associated with a dramatic and permanent steepening of the implied volatility curve for equity index options, despite minimal changes in aggregate consumption. We explain these events within a general equilibrium framework in which expected endowment growth and economic...

This paper introduces a new technique to infer the risk-neutral probability distribution of an asset from the prices of options on this asset. The technique is based on using the trading volume of each option as a proxy of the informativeness of the option. Not requiring the implied probability...

A discrete time model of financial markets is considered. It is assumed that the stock price evolution is described by a homogeneous Markov chain. In the focus of attention is the expected value of the guaranteed profit of the investor that arises when the jumps of the stock price are bounded....

A discrete time model of financial markets is considered. It is assumed that the relative jumps of the risky security price are independent non-identically distributed random variables. In the focus of attention is the expected non-risky profit of the investor that arises when the jumps of the...

In this paper we will be estimating risk-neutral densities (RND) for the largest euro area stock market (the index of which is the German DAX), reporting their statistical properties, and evaluating their forecasting performance. We have applied an innovative test procedure to a new, rich, and...

The paper develops an oil price forecasting technique which is based on the present value model of rational commodity pricing. The approach suggests shifting the forecasting problem to the marginal convenience yield which can be derived from the cost-of-carry relationship. In a recursive...

The mainstream model of option pricing is based on an exogenously given process of price movements. The implication of this assumption is that price movements are not affected by actions of market participants. However, if we assume that there are indeed impacts on the price movements it no...

We focus on closed-form option pricing in Heston's stochastic volatility model, in which closed-form formulas exist only for few option types. Most of these closed-form solutions are constructed from characteristic functions. We follow this approach and derive multivariate characteristic...

We derive a semi-analytical formula for pricing forward-start options in the Barndorff-Nielsen- Shephard model. In terms of computational time, this formula is equivalent to one-dimensional integration.

When pricing the convexity effect in irregular interest rate derivatives such as, e.g., Libor-in-arrears or CMS, one often ignores the volatility smile, which is quite pronounced in the interest rate options market. This note solves the problem of convexity by replicating the irregular interest...