This paper discusses methods to quantify risk and uncertainty in macroeconomic forecasts. Both, parametric and non … macroeconometric model of the Bundesbank for Germany. Forecast intervals that integrate judgement on risk and uncertainty are obtained. …

to meet their financial obligations. It is based on classical financial-statement approach, a direct inclusion of risk …

Modeling the price risk of CO2 certificates is one important aspect of integral corporate risk management related to … emissions trading. The paper presents a risk model which may be the basis for evaluating the risk of emission certificate prices …

The situation of a limited availability of historical data is frequently encountered in portfolio risk estimation …, especially in credit risk estimation. This makes it, for example, difficult to find temporal structures with statistical … into account. The modelling framework is based on multivariate elliptical processes which model portfolio risk via sub …

the failure of financial modeling. More specifically, current risk models have failed to properly assess the risks … over prevailing models for evaluating stock market risk exposure during distressed market periods. …

The purpose of this paper is to provide a non-technical exposition of the main conclusions of the theory of Rational … Belief Equilibrium (RBE) for market volatility. It is argued that the theory of Rational Belief Equilibria (RBE) provides a … uncertainty is propagated within the economy (hence "endogenous") by the beliefs of the agents who trade assets. The theory of RBE …