The aim of this paper is to develop a continuous time exchange rate model that allows for heterogeneity of the agents' beliefs, in order to explore non-linearities and possible chaotic behaviour. The theoretical model contains an intrinsic non-linearity that gives rise to a jerk differential...

Recently various exchange rate models capturing the dynamics during the transition from an exchange rate arrangement of floating rates into a currency union have been derived. Technically, these stochastic equilibrium models are diffusion processes which have to be estimated by discretely...

In this paper we present a critical overview of differnt methods of constructing an equilibrium exchange rate. The recent literature on purchasing power parity (PPP) indicates that on its own PPP is not a good vehicle for defining an equilibrium exchange rate. Rather, we argue that the latter...

In this paper we propose a generalisation of the noise trader transmission mechanism to examine the impact of central bank intervention on exchange rates. Within a heterogeneous expectations exchange rate model intervention operations are supposed to provide support to either chartist or...

Sterilized foreign exchange market interventions are commonly dismissed by economists as an ineffective policy instrument. Nevertheless many central banks operating under independently floating exchange rates regimes are often engaged in sales and purchases of foreign exchange in order to...

The inability to reconcile observed levels of foreign exchange rate volatility with predictions derived from rational expectations models represents one of the most persistent challenges in international finance. This paper shows that such excess volatility puzzles arise from informational...

We present a model of bilateral real exchange rate determination based on different theories that can be combined into a common statistical framework. Although eclectic, the approach is successfully used to shape a final specification which performs surprisingly well when out of sample exercises...

Dieses Arbeitspapier untersucht Erklärungen für das hohe Mass an Persistenz und Volatilität des realen Wechselkurses. Dabei wird dem Ansatz gefolgt, dass die Schwankungen des realen Wechselkurses zurückzuführen sind auf exogene Schocks in Interaktion mit trägen Güterpreisen. Der Fokus...

In this paper we model how the existence of different beliefs about the underlying fundamental value of a currency affects the dynamics of the exchange rate. We find that a divergence of beliefs creates the potential for waves of optimism and pessimism that alternate in an unpredictable way....