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Experience effects in economics lessons from past and current crises

Malmendier, Ulrike - 2023

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013540273

Agonism, decision, power: The art of working unfinished

Pløger, John - In: Raumforschung und Raumordnung / Spatial Research and … 81 (2023) 5, pp. 449-460

with a finite decision. This paper suggests that this agonistic approach needs de-cisions or simply put, temporary … decisions drawn from seeing a decision as a solution for now. A de-cision is not a no-decision, but a decision recognised as … planning process from being a matter of reaching a finite decision to a strife about how to understand the present and which …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014442545

Calvo pricing and imperfect common knowledge: a forward looking model of rational inflation inertia

Nimark, Kristoffer P. - 2005

the ’Hybrid’ New Keynesian Phillips Curve, even though the pricing decision of the firm is entirely forward looking. The …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604520

Near-rational exuberance

Bullard, James; Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo - 2005

We study how the use of judgement or “add-factors” in macroeconomic forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium outcomes when agents learn using recursive methods. We isolate conditions under which new phenomena, which we call exuberance equilibria, can exist in standard macroeconomic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604601

Inflation dynamics and regime shifts

Lendvai, Julia - 2006

This paper extends the New Keynesian model to allow for stochastic shifts in the monetary policy regime. Agents cannot observe the regime and use a Bayesian learning rule to make optimal inferences. Price setting is adapted to this environment: lagged expectations about monetary policy influence...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604730

The uncovered return parity condition

Cappiello, Lorenzo; De Santis, Roberto A. - 2007

This paper proposes an equilibrium relationship between expected exchange rate changes and differentials in expected returns on risky assets. We show that when expected returns on a risky asset in a certain economy are higher than the returns that are expected from investing in a risky asset in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604858

International evidence on sticky consumption growth.

Carroll, Christopher D.; Slacalek, Jiri; Sommer, Martin - 2008

We estimate the degree of ‘stickiness’ in aggregate consumption growth (sometimes interpreted as reflecting consumption habits) for thirteen advanced economies. We find that, after controlling for measurement error, consumption growth has a high degree of auto-correlation, with a stickiness...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604932

Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates

Guidolin, Massimo; Thornton, Daniel L. - 2008

Despite its important role in monetary policy and finance, the expectations hypothesis (EH) of the term structure of interest rates has received virtually no empirical support. The empirical failure of the EH was attributed to a variety of econometric biases associated with the single-equation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605023

Learning from experience in the stock market

Nakov, Anton; Nuño, Galo - 2011

We study the dynamics of a Lucas-tree model with finitely lived agents who "learn from experience." Individuals update expectations by Bayesian learning based on observations from their own lifetimes. In this model, the stock price exhibits stochastic boom-and-bust fluctuations around the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605442

Anchoring the yield curve using survey expectations

Altavilla, Carlo; Giacomini, Raffaella; Ragusa, Giuseppe - 2014

The dynamic behaviour of the term structure of interest rates is difficult to replicate with models, and even models with a proven track record of empirical performance have underperformed since the early 2000s. On the other hand, survey expectations are accurate predictors of yields, but only...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605677

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