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This paper shows that the credibility gain from permanently committing to a fixed exchange rate by joining the European … credibility a pegged exchange rate regime yields a lower loss compared to an inflation targeting policy, even if this policy … ranking would be reversed in a fullcredibility environment. There exists an initial stock of credibility that must be achieved …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604562
macroeconomic model of commitment and credibility. As the dependent variable, we calculate a post-reform inflation rate. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270683
extent to which inflation expectations are formed by the announced targets. As the credibility of the central bank increases … target. Credibility enables expectation to be formed in a forward-looking way by weakening its connection with the past. This … study aims to contribute to the literature concerning the effects of credibility on monetary policy. For this purpose, using …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014558525
Monetary policy rules have been considered as fundamental protection against inflation. However, empirical evidence for a correlation between rules and inflation is relatively weak. In this paper, we first discuss likely causes for this weak link and present the argument that monetary commitment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010334520
This paper first shows that the forecast error incurred when assuming that future inflation will be equal to the inflation target announced by the central bank is typically at least as small and often smaller than forecast errors of model-based and published inflation forecasts. It then shows...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604610
Over the last decades, there has been plenty of research and articles on Political Business Cycles (PBC), aiming at analyzing and explaining the use of fiscal and monetary instruments to stimulate economic growth before elections, to impress the voters. Following other researches for PBC in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010300813
The phenomena of manipulation of the economy by the incumbent for electoral purpose are called Political Business Cycles (PBC), introduced by Nordhaus (1975). Using policy control economic instruments, as fiscal and monetary instruments, government may manipulate the economy to gain electoral...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010300840
We analyze the interaction of stock market movements and politics in Germany. In contrast to the empirical evidence available for the U.S., we do not find that German stock market returns tend to be higher during liberal than during conservative governments. Also in contrast to results for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260493
The effect of 'locking-in' economic reform and enhancing its credibility is generally regarded as one of the most … thus to improve the credibility of the Syrian process of reform at home and abroad. A major loophole of the agreement …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293526
-)establish credibility, optimal monetary policy under discretion is shown to set higher interest rates today if average inflation exceeded … term in the central bank's optimal instrument rule, which we refer to as the credibility loss. Augmenting a standard Taylor … seven central banks and that this influence is economically meaningful. A deteroriation in credibility forces central …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294449