Showing 1 - 10 of 22,250
This study develops a new monthly euro Area‐wide Leading Indicator (ALI) for the euro area business cycle. It derives the composite ALI by applying a deviation cycle methodology with a one‐sided band pass filter and choosing nine leading series. Our main findings are that i) the applied...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605292
This Policy Brief introduces the Gini Trade Index (GTI) as a new trade synthetic key performance indicator capable of … replicates the well-known features of the traditional Gini Index, a widely used metric for the skewness of several socioeconomic … indicators, in particular income inequality. The Policy Brief calculates the Gini Trade Index for all EU member states and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014560170
Das Gutachten untersucht, ob die IWF-Prognosen für den Zuwachs des Bruttoinlandsprodukts in der Welt und in der Gruppe der Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländer mithilfe von gängigen Frühindikatoren verbessert werden können. Dabei zeigt sich, dass die Prognosegüte der IWF-Prognosen mit...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011489813
management index in addition to the general time index of Baltagi and Griffin (1988) and use them as arguments in the translog …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010312081
The dynamic behaviour of the term structure of interest rates is difficult to replicate with models, and even models with a proven track record of empirical performance have underperformed since the early 2000s. On the other hand, survey expectations are accurate predictors of yields, but only...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605677
Diffusion index models have received considerable attention from both theoreticians and empirical econometricians in … macroeconomic variables. In this paper we review some recent results in the study of diffusion index models, focusing primarily on … using diffusion index methodology and approaches that are useful for assessing whether there are observable variables that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282837
factor proxies selected from amongst 132 macroeconomic and financial time series, using the diffusion index methodology of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282848
The financial crisis of 200709 has highlighted the importance of developments in financial conditions for real economic activity. The authors estimate the effect of current and past shocks to financial variables on U.S. GDP growth by constructing two growthbased financial conditions indexes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010289690
This paper describes a weekly economic index (WEI) developed to track the rapid economic developments associated with … the onset of and policy response to the novel coronavirus in the United States. The WEI is a weekly composite index of … being a weekly real activity index, the WEI has strong predictive power for output measures and provided an accurate nowcast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012619497
Leading indicators are typical constructs used in macroeconomics to guide decision making in several areas of economic activity, including policy formation and long term investment. Researchers often evaluate and select leading indicators on a seemingly ad hoc basis involving OLS regression,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010301756