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output gap estimates and forecast horizons, the results point clearly to a lack of any usefulness of real-time output gap … forecast real GDP growth, particularly in the short term, and some appear also useful in the medium run. No single output gap …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605203
period up to 2026 by drawing on past sectoral trends and the latest macroeconomic forecast results from the International …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014565947
into risk premium and forecast error components, we find that risk premia are counter-cyclical in both areas. On the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605025
for addressing the question from an empirical angle, searching for the indicator that best explains and helps forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604879
countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that they are partly related to geography and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010299102
countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that they are partly related to geography and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604624
The quantity theory of money predicts a positive relationship between monetary growth and inflation over long-run horizons. However, in the short-run, transitory shocks to either money or inflation can obscure the inflationary signal stemming from money. The spectral analysis of time series...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604516
In this paper I evaluate the usefulness of a set of fiscal indicators as early-warning-signal tools for annual General Government Net Lending developments for some EMU countries (Belgium, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, The Netherlands, Ireland, Austria, Finland) and an EMU aggregate. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604543
Low international competitiveness of a set of euro area countries, which have become evident by large current account deficits and rising risk premiums on government bonds, is one of the most challenging economic policy issues for Europe. We analyse the role of private restructuring and public...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010331421
Central banks have had an important role in maintaining financial stability through their lender of last resort role. As lender of last resort, the central bank is given enormous power which is normally tempered by a variety of limits. In the most recent crises in both the United States and euro...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010397238