We propose a new time series model aimed at forecasting crude oil prices. The proposed specification is an unobserved components model with an asymmetric cyclical component. The asymmetric cycle is defined as a sine-cosine wave where the frequency of the cycle depends on past oil price...

The unparalleled surge of the crude oil price after 2003 has triggered a heated scientific and public debate about its ultimate causes. Unexpected demand growth particularly from emerging economies appears to be the most prominently supported reason among academics. We study the price dynamics...

Based on the approach advanced by Elliott et al. (Rev. Ec. Studies. 72, 1197-1125), we found that the loss function of a sample of oil price forecasters is asymmetric in the forecast error. Our findings indicate that the loss oil price forecasters incurred when their forecasts exceeded the price...

Global monetary conditions have often been cited as a driving factor of commodity prices. This paper investigates the empirical relationship between US monetary policy and commodity prices by means of a standard VAR system, commonly used in analysing the effects of monetary policy shocks. The...

From the last quarter of 2001 to the third quarter of 2005 the real price of oil increased by 103%. Such an increase is comparable to the one experienced during the oil shock of 1973. At the same time, the behaviour of real GDP growth, Consumer Price inflation (CPI inflation), GDP Deflator...

The Hotelling rule argues that the price for a nonrenewable resource adjusts to the shadow value of the resource, reflecting the remaining availability of the resource. We empirically test the Hotelling rule on the effect of unanticipated oil field discoveries. We do not find evidence for a...

This paper documents the existence of a significant forecast error on crude oil futures. We interpret it as a risk premium, which, in part, could have been explained by means of a real-time US business cycle indicator, such as the degree of capacity utilization in manufacturing. This result is...