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International Stock Return Predictability Under Model Uncertainty
Schrimpf, Andreas - 2008
This paper examines return predictability when the investor is uncertain about the right state variables. A novel feature of the model averaging approach used in this paper is to account for finite-sample bias of the coefficients in the predictive regressions. Drawing on an extensive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298059
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Investing in European Stock Markets for High-Technology Firms
Pierdzioch, Christian; Schertler, Andrea - 2005
We used a recursive modeling approach to study whether investors could, in real time, have used information on the comovement of stock markets to forecast stock returns in European stock markets for high-technology firms. We used weekly data on returns in the Neuer Markt, the Nouveau Marché,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260542
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A multiple factor model for European stocks
Stephan, Thomas G.; Maurer, Raimond; Dürr, Martin - 2000
We present an empirical study focusing on the estimation of a fundamental multi-factor model for a universe of European …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010316262
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The Stochastic Volatility in Mean Model
Koopman, Siem Jan; Uspensky, Eugenie Hol - 2000
In this paper we present an exact maximum likelihood treatment forthe estimation of a Stochastic Volatility in Mean …) models, known as the ARCH in Mean (ARCH-M)model. The estimation of ARCH models isrelatively easy compared with that of the … developments of estimation methods intoaccount, we regard SV and SVM models as practical alternatives totheir ARCH counterparts and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010324578
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Evaluating Density Forecasts with an Application to Stock Market Returns
Raunig, Burkhard; de Raaij, Gabriela - 2002
Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role in modern financial risk management techniques like Value at Risk. This paper suggests a regression based density forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295725
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Real-time macroeconomic data and ex ante predictability of stock returns
Döpke, Jörg; Hartmann, Daniel; Pierdzioch, Christian - 2006
We report results on the ex ante predictability of monthly excess stock returns in Germany using real-time and revised macroeconomic data. Our real-time macroeconomic data cover the period 1994-2005. We report three results. 1) Real-time macroeconomic data did not contribute much to ex ante...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295798
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Semiparametric Approaches to the Prediction of Conditional Correlation Matrices in Finance
Herwartz, Helmut; Golosnoy, Vasyl - 2007
We consider the problem of ex-ante forecasting conditional correlation patterns using ultra high frequency data. Flexible semiparametric predictors referring to the class of dynamic panel and dynamic factor models are adopted for daily forecasts. The parsimonious set up of our approach allows to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010296287
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Nichtparametrische Quantilsprognose und ihre Anwendung auf Aktienrenditen
Abberger, Klaus - 1995
In diesem Aufsatz wird die nichtparametrische Autoregression auf die Prognose von Quantilen angewendet. Verfahren der Kernregression werden benutzt, um zu autoregressiven Quantiisschätzern zu gelangen. Da die üblichen Maße zur Beurteilung der Prognose, wie etwa der mittlere quadratische...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010397885
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Parameter estimation and forecasting for multiplicative lognormal cascades
Leövey, Andrés E.; Lux, Thomas - 2011
Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation procedure to cope with the documented difficulties of previous methodologies. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010286258
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Expected inflation, expected stock returns, and money illusion: What can we learn from survey expectations?
Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas - 2008
We show empirically that survey-based measures of expected inflation are significant and strong predictors of future aggregate stock returns in several industrialized countries both in-sample and out-of-sample. By empirically discriminating between competing sources of this return predictability...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263733