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Stylized facts suggest that output volatility in OECD countries has declined in recent years. However, the causes and … structural breaks in the dynamics and the volatility of the real output process in Germany can be detected. We report evidence … that output volatility has declined in Germany. Yet, this decline in output volatility is not as clear-cut as it is in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260526
In this paper we analyze how the availability of credit influences the relationship between government size as a proxy for fiscal stabilization policy and the amplitude of business cycle fluctuations in a sample of advanced OECD countries. Interpreting relatively low loan-tovalue ratios as an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294478
We argue that positive comovements between land prices and business investment are a driving force behind the broad … joint dynamics of land prices and business investment. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292308
We review evidence on the Great Moderation together with evidence about volatility trends at the micro level to develop … a potential explanation for the decline in aggregate volatility since the 1980s and its consequences. The key elements … are declines in firm-level volatility and aggregate volatility-most dramatically in the durable goods sector-but with no …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010283570
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014306477
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014306491
The paper studies the interaction between cyclical uncertainty and investment in a stochastic real option framework … where demand shifts stochastically between three different states, each with different rates of drift and volatility. In our … of the link between cyclical uncertainty and investment is quantified using simulations of the model. The chief …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010271966
Business cycles reflect changes over time in the amount of trade between individuals. In this paper we show that incorporating explicitly intra-temporal gains from trade between individuals into a macroeconomic model can provide new insight into the potential mechanisms driving economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010307846
velocity volatility at both business cycle and long run frequencies. With filtered velocity turning negative, starting during …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010494417
This paper analyzes the impacts of news shocks on macroeconomic volatility. Whereas anticipation amplifies volatility …) to provide numerical evidence that news shocks increase the volatility of key macroeconomic variables in the euro area …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010285357