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A Long-run Macroeconomic Model of the Austrian Economy (A-LMM). Model Documentation and Simulations

Baumgartner, Josef; Hofer, Helmut; Kaniovski, Serguei; … - 2004

In this paper we develop a long run macroeconomic model for Austria to simulate the effects of aging on employment, output growth, and the solvency of the social security system. By disaggregating the population into six age cohorts and modelling sex specific participation rates for each cohort,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011435145

Regionalism in West Africa : Do Polar Countries Reap the Benefits? : A Role for Migration

Konseiga, Adama - 2005

) and highlighted the size of the brain loss toward Côte d?Ivoire and France. Burkina Faso shows a more severe brain drain … France. The subsequent empirical strategy consists in comparing the growth performance of an economy without migration to the … country (France) and failed when migration, as is the case for Burkina Faso, flows into Cote d?Ivoire the polar economy of the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010262227

Identification based on higher moments

Lewis, Daniel J. - 2024

Identification based on higher moments has drawn increasing theoretical attention and been widely adopted in empirical practice in macroeconometrics in the last two decades. This article reviews two parallel strands of the literature: identification strategies based on heteroskedasticity and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014480567

Real-time model uncertainty in the United States: the Fed from 1996-2003

Tetlow, Robert J.; Ironside, Brian - 2006

We study 30 vintages of FRB/US, the principal macro model used by the Federal Reserve Board staff for forecasting and policy analysis. To do this, we exploit archives of the model code, coefficients, baseline databases and stochastic shock sets stored after each FOMC meeting from the model’s...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604656

The Dutch block of the ESCB multi-country model

Angelini, Elena; Boissay, Frédéric; Ciccarelli, Matteo - 2006

The paper presents the Dutch country block of the ESCB Multi-Country Model (MCM) for the euro area. We show how a theoretical model is translated into an econometric specification and how this specification is in turn estimated and used in the projection exercises of the E(S)CB. The dynamic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604692

The German block of the ESCB multi-country model

Vetlov, Igor; Warmedinger, Thomas - 2006

The paper presents the German block of the ESCB multi-country model. It builds on previous modelling work on the Area Wide Model and other country blocks of the ESCB multicountry-model. Whilst being analogous to these models in following a common modelling approach and the same theoretical...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604700

The Italian block of the ESCB multi-country model

Angelini, Elena; D’Agostino, Antonello; McAdam, Peter - 2006

This paper documents the structure, estimation and simulation properties of the Italian block of the ESCB-multi-country model (MCM). The model is used regularly as an input into Eurosystem projection exercises and, to a lesser extent, in simulation analysis. The specification of the Italian...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604706

The New Area-Wide Model of the euro area: a micro-founded open-economy model for forecasting and policy analysis

Christoffel, Kai; Coenen, Günter; Warne, Anders - 2008

In this paper, we outline a version of the New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) of the euro area designed for use in the (Broad) Macroeconomic Projection Exercises regularly undertaken by ECB/Eurosystem staff. We present estimation results for the NAWM that are obtained by employing Bayesian inference...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604990

The South African economy: Macroeconomic prospects for the medium term

Tarp, Finn; Brixen, Peter - 1996

What are the macroeconomic prospects for South Africa until the new millennium? Two methods of macroeconomic modelling, associated with the World Bank and IMF, are used here to generate three scenarios, based on moderately optimistic projections. The methodology used can be applied to other...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012615505

A generalised dynamic factor model for the Belgian economy - Useful business cycle indicators and GDP growth forecasts

Van Nieuwenhuyze, Christophe - 2006

This paper aims to extract the common variation in a data set of 509 conjunctural series as an indication of the Belgian business cycle. The data set contains information on business and consumer surveys of Belgium and its neighbouring countries, macroeconomic variables and some worldwide...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011506602

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