The paper presents the German block of the ESCB multi-country model. It builds on previous modelling work on the Area Wide Model and other country blocks of the ESCB multicountry-model. Whilst being analogous to these models in following a common modelling approach and the same theoretical...

This study develops a new monthly euro Area‐wide Leading Indicator (ALI) for the euro area business cycle. It derives the composite ALI by applying a deviation cycle methodology with a one‐sided band pass filter and choosing nine leading series. Our main findings are that i) the applied...

This paper aims to extract the common variation in a data set of 509 conjunctural series as an indication of the Belgian business cycle. The data set contains information on business and consumer surveys of Belgium and its neighbouring countries, macroeconomic variables and some worldwide...

Identification based on higher moments has drawn increasing theoretical attention and been widely adopted in empirical practice in macroeconometrics in the last two decades. This article reviews two parallel strands of the literature: identification strategies based on heteroskedasticity and...

Based on monthly data covering the period from 1987 to 2021, we analyse whether cross‐sectional moments of stock market returns may provide information about the future position of the German business cycle. We apply in‐sample forecasting regressions with and without leading indicators as...

Die ostdeutsche Industrie galt in der ersten Zeit der wirtschaftlichen Erneuerung noch als Sorgenkind. Nach der Überwindung des tiefgreifenden Einbruchs im Jahre 1992 hat sie sich jedoch immer mehr zum Wachstumsmotor entwickelt. Gleichwohl ist die industrielle Basis noch zu schmal. Um einen...

Das Bauvolumen wird in diesem Jahr einen Wert von knapp 230 Mrd. Euro erreichen - ein Minus von annähernd 3% gegenüber 2004. Der Preisanstieg dürfte mit rund 1,5 % etwas stärker als in den Vorjahren ausfallen; das reale Bauvolumen wird somit um gut 4% schrumpfen. Während die Entwicklung in...