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Loss, default and loss given default modeling
Witzany, Jiří - 2009
The goal of the Basle II regulatory formula is to model the unexpected loss on a loan portfolio. The regulatory formula is based on an asymptotic portfolio unexpected default rate estimation that is multiplied by an estimate of the loss given default parameter. This simplification leads to a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010322310
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Debt Maturity without Commitment
Niepelt, Dirk - 2008
I analyze how lack of commitment affects the maturity structure of sovereign debt. Governments balance benefits of …- term debt affects default and rollover decisions by subsequent policy makers. The equilibrium maturity structure is shaped … interior maturity structure with positive gross positions and a shortening of the maturity structure when debt issuance is high …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011430074
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Macro stress testing with sector specific bankruptcy models
Valentiny-Endrész, Marianna; Vásáry, Zoltán - 2008
This paper employs the methodology of Wilson (1997) on Hungarian data to conduct a macro stress test in relation to banks' corporate loan portfolio. First, sector specific models of bankruptcy are estimated, where the bankruptcy frequency is linked to the general health of the economy. Data on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010322432
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Pro-Cyclicality, Empirical Credit Cycles, and Capital Buffer Formation
Koopman, Siem Jan; Lucas, André; Klaassen, Pieter - 2002
We model 1927-1997 U.S. business failure rates using a time series approach based on unobserved components. Clear evidence is found of cyclical behavior in default rates. The cycle has a period of around 10 years. We also detect longer term movements in default probabilities and default...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010325004
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Hunting the Living Dead A “Peso Problem” in Corporate Liabilities Data
Manera, Matteo; Cherubini, Umberto - 2005
the credit spread terms structure, particularly on the short maturity end. Possible explanations stem from strategic debt …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010312533
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Corporate Distress and Restructuring with Macroeconomic Fluctuations: The Cases of GM and Ford
Oxelheim, Lars; Wihlborg, Clas - 2009
Traditional methods for evaluating corporate credit risk rarely consider the impact of the macro economy on corporate value and performance. We argue that lenders and management can obtain valuable information about the need for and approach to restructuring by decomposing default predictions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010320364
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The credit risk premium in a disaster-prone world
Zhu, Yanhui; Copeland, Laurence - 2008
The seminal Barro (2006) closed-economy model of the equity risk premium in the presence of extreme events (disasters) allowed for leverage in the form of risky corporate debt which defaulted only in states when the Government defaulted on its debt. The probability of default was therefore...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010288780
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Global macro-financial shocks and expected default frequencies in the euro area
Castrén, Olli; Dées, Stéphane; Zaher, Fadi - 2008
Modelling the link between the global macro-financial factors and firms’ default probabilities constitutes an elementary part of financial sector stress-testing frameworks. Using the Global Vector Autoregressive(GVAR) model and constructing a linking satellite equation for the firm-level...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604921
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Incorporating prediction and estimation risk in point-in-time credit portfolio models
Hamerle, Alfred; Knapp, Michael; Liebig, Thilo; … - 2005
In this paper we focus on the analysis of the effect of prediction and estimation risk on the loss distribution, risk measures and economic capital. When variables for the determination of probability of default and loss distribution have to be predicted because they are not available at the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295906
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Measuring business sector concentration by an infection model
Düllmann, Klaus - 2006
Results from portfolio models for credit risk tell us that loan concentration in certain industry sectors can substantially increase the value-at-risk (VaR). The purpose of this paper is to analyze whether a tractable "infection model" can provide a meaningful estimate of the impact of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295911