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Extreme value theory as a theoretical background for power law behavior
Alfarano, Simone; Lux, Thomas - 2010
therefore allows its application in many diverse fields. Moreover, this theory offers new powerful techniques for the estimation … theory, which provide a statistical justification for the emergence of power laws as limiting behavior for extreme … fluctuations. The remarkable generality of the theory allows to abstract from the details of the system under investigation, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010277948
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The Empirical Performance of Option Based Densities of Foreign Exchange
Keller, Joachim G.; Craig, Ben R. - 2002
Risk neutral densities (RND) can be used to forecast the price of the underlying basis for the option, or it may be used to price other derivates based on the same sequence. The method adopted in this paper to calculate the RND is to firts estimate daily the diffusion process of the underlying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295724
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Evaluating Density Forecasts with an Application to Stock Market Returns
Raunig, Burkhard; de Raaij, Gabriela - 2002
Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role in modern financial risk management techniques like Value at Risk. This paper suggests a regression based density forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295725
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Country Default Probabilities: Assessing and Backtesting
Vogl, Konstantin; Maltritz, Dominik; Huschens, Stefan; … - 2006
We address the problem how to estimate default probabilities for sovereign countries based on market data of traded debt. A structural Merton-type model is applied to a sample of emerging market and transition countries. In this context, only few and heterogeneous default probabilities are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010296810
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Bayesian inference for hedge funds with stable distribution of returns
Güner, Biliana; Rachev, Svetlozar T.; Edelman, Daniel; … - 2010
Recently, a body of academic literature has focused on the area of stable distributions and their application potential for improving our understanding of the risk of hedge funds. At the same time, research has sprung up that applies standard Bayesian methods to hedge fund evaluation. Little or...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010301731
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Modelling volatilities and conditional correlations in futures markets with a multivariate t distribution
Pesaran, Bahram; Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem - 2007
than by GARCH type volatility estimates. The t-DCC estimation procedure is applied to a portfolio of daily returns on …-DCC specification. The t-DCC model also passes a number of VaR diagnostic tests over an evaluation sample. The estimation results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276212
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Modelling volatilities and conditional correlations in futures markets with a multivariate t distribution
Pesaran, Bahram; Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem - 2007
than by GARCH type volatility estimates. The t-DCC estimation procedure is applied to a portfolio of daily returns on …-DCC specification. The t-DCC model also passes a number of VaR diagnostic tests over an evaluation sample. The estimation results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276254
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Capturing the zero: A new class of zero-augmented distributions and multiplicative error processes
Hautsch, Nikolaus; Malec, Peter; Schienle, Melanie - 2011
We propose a novel approach to model serially dependent positive-valued variables which realize a non-trivial proportion of zero outcomes. This is a typical phenomenon in financial time series observed at high frequencies, such as cumulated trading volumes. We introduce a flexible point-mass...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010308578
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Tackling boundary effects in nonparametric estimation of intra-day liquidity measures
Grammig, Joachim; Hujer, Reinhard; Kokot, Stefan - 2001
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010316239
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Misspecification testing in a class of conditional distributional models
Rothe, Christoph; Wied, Dominik - 2012
We propose a specification test for a wide range of parametric models for the conditional distribution function of an outcome variable given a vector of covariates. The test is based on the Cramer-von Mises distance between an unrestricted estimate of the joint distribution function of the data,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282420