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Fiscal Transparency and Procyclical Fiscal Policy
Andersen, Asger Lau; Holbøll Westh Nielsen, Lasse - 2010
politicians generates a procyclical bias in government spending. The introduction of fiscal transparency generates two new … predictions: 1) the procyclical bias in fiscal policy arises only in good times; and 2) a higher degree of fiscal transparency … reduces the bias in good times. We find solid empirical support for both predictions using data on both OECD countries and a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010321001
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The politics of IMF forecasts
Dreher, Axel; Marchesi, Silvia; Vreeland, James Raymond - 2007
economic forecasts. We find a systematic bias in growth and inflation forecasts. Our results indicate that countries voting in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264236
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The politics of IMF forecasts
Dreher, Axel; Marchesi, Silvia; Vreeland, James Raymond - 2007
economic forecasts. We find a systematic bias in growth and inflation forecasts. Our results indicate that countries voting in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010277755
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Real-time datasets really do make a difference: Definitional change, data release, and forecasting
Fernandez, Andres; Swanson, Norman - 2011
In this paper, we empirically assess the extent to which early release inefficiency and definitional change affect prediction precision. In particular, we carry out a series of ex-ante prediction experiments in order to examine: the marginal predictive content of the revision process, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282871
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The Contribution of Foreign Borrowing to the New Zealand Economy
Makin, Anthony; Zhang, Wei; Scobie, Grant - 2008
New Zealand's unrelenting current account deficits, its trade performance and high external debt level remain central to ongoing economic policy debates. However, what has been overlooked in the discussion of New Zealand's economic relations with its trading partners is the positive contribution...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115608
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Convergence in GDP per Capita in the Euro Area and the EU at the Time of COVID-19
Licchetta, Mirko; Mattozzi, Giovanni - In: Intereconomics 58 (2023) 1, pp. 43-51
This paper investigates determinants of convergence in GDP per capita in the euro area and the EU between 1995 and 2021. It finds that the COVID-19 crisis temporarily slowed convergence but the estimated negative impact is significantly smaller than during the global financial crisis. Diverging...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014334683
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Flow of conjunctural information and forecast of euro area economic activity
Drechsel, Katja; Maurin, Laurent - 2008
Euro area GDP and components are nowcast and forecast one quarter ahead. Based on a dataset of 163 series comprising the relevant monthly indicators, simple bridge equations with one explanatory variable are estimated for each. The individual forecasts generated by each equation are then pooled,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604971
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Estimating and forecasting the euro area monthly national accounts from a dynamic factor model
Angelini, Elena; Bańbura, Marta; Rünstler, Gerhard - 2008
We estimate and forecast growth in euro area monthly GDP and its components from a dynamic factor model due to Doz et al. (2005), which handles unbalanced data sets in an efficient way. We extend the model to integrate interpolation and forecasting together with cross-equation accounting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604999
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Early estimates of euro area real GDP growth: a bottom up approach from the production side
Hahn, Elke; Skudelny, Frauke - 2008
This paper derives forecasts for euro area real GDP growth based on a bottom up approach from the production side. That is, GDP is forecast via the forecasts of value added across the different branches of activity, which is quite new in the literature. Linear regression models in the form of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605021
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Wirtschaftspolitische Reaktion mildert Corona-Einbruch: Verhaltene Erholung in Sicht. Prognose der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung 2020/2021
Dullien, Sebastian; Herzog-Stein, Alexander; Hohlfeld, Peter - 2020
Die Corona-Krise hat die Weltwirtschaft in eine tiefe Rezession gestürzt. Im ersten Halbjahr 2020 ist die globale Wirtschaftsaktivität stark geschrumpft. Im Prognosezeitraum dürfte die weltwirtschaftliche Produktion mit Unterstützung der Geld- und Fiskalpolitik wieder spürbar ausgeweitet...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012387322