Med afsæt i et historisk lavt dividende-pris (D-P) forhold har Tom Engsted & Carsten Tanggaard prædikteret, at det danske aktiemarked vil falde med 50 % i.f.t niveauet i 1996, idet en tilbagevenden af D-P ratioen til det historiske gennemsnit hævdes primært at komme i stand via styrtdykkende...

This short paper studies the empirical relationship between realized stock returns and bond yields at the 5- and 10-year investment horizons, respectively. Using annual Danish data since 1927, we find that stock returns and bond yields are closely linked in the medium and long term, as we...

This paper analyzes whether, and to what extent, the Danish 1, 5 and 10-year equity premia are predictable. We examine the predictive power of a comprehensive list of financial ratios, interest rates and so forth. The results show that the 5-year premium is predictable in the sense that the...

Using Danish data for the post-World War II-period, we estimate a simple model for the long-run behavior of stock prices. We find a stable and strong cointegrating relation between stock prices and two macroeconomic "fundamentals" variables, firm profits and the nominal bond rate. Both...

In this paper, we estimate a consumption function based on a new set of data for household wealth. The basis is a standard error correction model where consumption is driven by income and wealth developments in the long run. The model which is estimated on quarterly data for the period 1973-2005...

Based on data on the living space of dwellings compiled by Statistics Denmark and data on housing prices compiled by Realkreditraadet (the Association of Danish Mortgage Banks), we calculate three measures of housing wealth for Denmark in the period from 1981 to 2006. These measures include...

We suggest an alternative approach to testing whether stocks provide a hedge against inflation in the long run. Based on a simple structural model, we test the hedge hypothesis in terms of the long-run linkage between stock prices and the general price level, as estimated by cointegration...

We estimate a well-specified two-state regime-switching model for Danish stock returns. The model identifies two regimes which have low return-low volatility and high return-high volatility, respectively. The low return-low volatility regime dominated, except in a few, short episodes, until the...

Using annual data over the post-World War I-period, we estimate a fundamentals-based empirical model for the dividend-price ratio of Danish stocks. The key fundamentals-variable is a time-varying discount rate, decomposed into time-varying measures for the growth-adjusted real interest rate and...