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mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test, ARDL model, and alternative volatility models … price while the volatility of global fertilizer prices and crude oil price from March to December 2008 are higher than in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326493
What is the relationship between economic growth and its volatility? Does political instability affect growth directly … or indirectly, through volatility? This paper tries to answer such questions using a power-ARCH framework with annual … legislative changes) has an indirect (through volatility) negative impact. We also find preliminary support for the idea that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010268236
volatility of aid on economic growth, controlling for the level of aid. A four-year panel analysis is conducted encompassing 155 … countries over the period 1966-2001. We find that once the volatility of aid is controlled for, aid has a positive impact on … economic growth. Correspondingly, volatility of aid flows is found to be negatively related to growth. We found no significant …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010325781
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010290242
The unparalleled surge of the crude oil price after 2003 has triggered a heated scientific and public debate about its ultimate causes. Unexpected demand growth particularly from emerging economies appears to be the most prominently supported reason among academics. We study the price dynamics...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011753232
Using a computable general equilibrium model of the Philippine economy, it is observed that the impact of an oil price change is negative. It is negative not only in terms of economic growth, but also in terms of income inequality and welfare. Can the effect be lessened? The paper argues that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011429635
Whether fiscal policy is sustainable depends on a government's future revenue and expenditure streams, both of which are highly uncertain. In commodity-rich countries, this problem is intensified by unpredictable and volatile commodity prices. We show how spending rules for oil income and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010325791
Using a modified DCC-MIDAS specification, we endogenize the long-term correlation between crude oil and stock price returns with respect to the stance of the U.S. macroeconomy. We find that variables which contain information on current and future economic activity are helpful predictors for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011422237
and supervisory arrangements adequate when market volatility increases and financial institutions come under stress? In …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011689935
aggregate output across industrial sectors which minimize the economy’s long-term volatility for a given level of long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605305