This paper proposes a new univariate method to decompose a time series into a trend, a cyclical and a seasonal component: the Trend-Cycle filter (TC filter) and its extension, the Trend-Cycle-Season filter (TCS filter). They can be regarded as extensions of the Hodrick-Prescott filter (HP...

With seasonal adjustment one has to decide whether to seasonal adjust an aggregate like GDP directly or to sum up its seasonally adjusted components. This choice is usually driven by subjective motives or practical convenience. In the case of seasonal adjustment with chain-linked data one might...

This paper investigates the nature of the output-employment relationship by using the Turkish quarterly data for the period from 1988 to 2008. Even though we fail to find a long-run relationship between aggregate output and total employment, there are long-run relationships for the aggregate...

This paper investigates the nature of the output-employment relationship by using the Turkish quarterly data for the period from 1988 to 2008. Even if we fail to find a long-run relationship between aggregate output and total employment, there are long-run relationships for the aggregate output...

Die Saisonbereinigung ist ein elementarer Bestandteil bei der Berechnung der Ergebnisreihen des ifo Konjunkturtests. Ab Januar 2015 erfolgt hier eine Umstellung der Methode vom ASA-II-Verfahren auf das international weit verbreitete X-13ARIMA-SEATS-Verfahren. Der Artikel zeigt das grundlegende...

Der vorliegende Beitrag untersucht, welchen Einfluss die Umstellung des Saisonbereinigungsverfahrens von dem ASA-II-Verfahren auf die X-13ARIMA-SEATS-Methode auf die Prognosekraft der ifo Indikatoren hat.

Konjunkturprognosen werden sinnvollerweise auf der Grundlage saisonbereinigter Daten erstellt, damit jahreszeitlich übliche Schwankungen ausgeschaltet werden. Kommt es aber zu extremen Witterungslagen, wenn etwa ein Winter besonders heftig oder aber auch besonders mild ausfällt, dann spiegeln...

This paper provides a comprehensive theoretical model of the political decision making process. Therein two ideologically different political parties compete for power. Their primary instrument in this competition are programmatic concessions in favor of voters and interest groups. As any...

This paper examines equilibrium and stability in symmetric two-player cheap-talk games. In particular, we characterize the set of neutrally stable outcomes in finite cheap-talk 2 x 2 coordination games. This set is finite and functionally independent of risk-dominance relations. As the number of...