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Stock returns and expected business conditions: Half a century of direct evidence
Campbell, Sean D.; Diebold, Francis X. - 2005
We explore the macro/finance interface in the context of equity markets. In particular, using half a century of Livingston expected business conditions data we characterize directly the impact of expected business conditions on expected excess stock returns. Expected business conditions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298269
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Capital controls, exchange rate volatility and risk premium
Frenkel, Michael; Stadtmann, Georg - 2002
Capital controls lower the variability of the exchange rate and reduce the risk premium as well as the domestic interest rate. On the other hand, capital controls reduce the number of noise traders and, therefore, the risk-bearing capacity of the market, leading to higher interest rates and a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010301757
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Evaluation of long-dated investments under uncertain growth trend, volatility and catastrophes
Gollier, Christian - 2012
probability of macroeconomic catastrophes à la Barro (2006), and to the case of an uncertain trend or volatility of growth à la …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010291529
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The impact of the euro on financial markets
Cappiello, Lorenzo; Hördahl, Peter; Kadareja, Arjan; … - 2006
We assess whether the euro had an impact first on the degree of integration of European financial markets, and, second, on the euro area term structure. We propose two methodologies to measure integration: one relies on time-varying GARCH correlations, and the other one on a regression...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604644
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Measuring financial asset return and volatility spillovers, with application to global equity markets
Diebold, Francis X.; Yilmaz, Kamil - 2007
formulate and examine precise and separate measures of return spillovers and volatility spillovers. Our framework facilitates … evidence of divergent behavior in the dynamics of return spillovers vs. volatility spillovers: Return spillovers display a … gently increasing trend but no bursts, whereas volatility spillovers display no trend but clear bursts. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298351
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Deterministic Seasonal Volatility in a Small and Integrated Stock Market: The Case of Sweden.
Berg, Lennart - 2000
seasonal pattern for the conditional volatility for the Swedish stock market has been found. The daily turnover in the Swedish … stock market has an impact on and eliminates to some extent seasonal patterns in conditional volatility. The daily turnover … correlated. We can also conclude that a feedback from the US stock market to the conditional volatility in the Swedish market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010321733
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Forecasting volatility and volume in the Tokyo stock market: Long memory, fractality and regime switching
Lux, Thomas; Kaizoji, Taisei - 2006
We investigate the predictability of both volatility and volume for a large sample of Japanese stocks. The particular … practically always improves upon the na?ve forecast provided by historical volatility. As a somewhat surprising result, we also …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294979
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Forecasting volatility and volume in the Tokyo stock market: The advantage of long memory models
Lux, Thomas; Kaizoji, Taisei - 2004
We investigate the predictability of both volatility and volume for a large sample of Japanese stocks. The particular … practically always improves upon the na?ve forecast provided by historical volatility. As a somewhat surprising result, we also …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295136
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Forecasting volatility in European stock markets with non-linear GARCH models
Forte, Gianfranco; Manera, Matteo - 2002
This paper investigates the forecasting performance of three popular variants of the non-linear GARCH models, namely VS-GARCH, GJR-GARCH and Q-GARCH, with the symmetric GARCH(1,1) model as a benchmark. The application involves ten European stock price indexes. Forecasts produced by each...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011335762
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Measuring the stability of a dynamic system: The case of the stock market turmoil 2007-2008
Bask, Mikael; Widerberg, Anna - 2010
The aim of this paper is to demonstrate how the change in actual and potential market risks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) during the two-year period 2007-2008 can be analyzed with the help of-analysis. In the empirical analysis, the average of the Lyapunov exponents for the dynamic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010321428