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The farm, the city, and the emergence of social security
Caucutt, Elizabeth M.; Cooley, Thomas F.; Guner, Nezih - 2008
In this paper we study the social, demographic and economic origins of social security. The data for the U.S. and for a cross section of countries make it clear that urbanization and industrialization are strongly associated with the rise of social insurance. We describe a model economy in which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010268612
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Multivariate methods for monitoring structural change
Groen, Jan J. J.; Kapetanios, George; Price, Simon - 2010
Detection of structural change is a critical empirical activity, but continuous 'monitoring' of series, for structural changes in real time, raises well-known econometric issues that have been explored in a single series context. If multiple series co-break then it is possible that simultaneous...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010286276
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The slanted-L Phillips curve
Benigno, Pierpaolo; Eggertsson, Gauti B. - 2024
A slanted-L curve is well-suited to represent the non-linearity of the celebrated Phillips curve. We show this using cross-country data of major industrialized economies since 2009, including the inflationary surge of the 2020s. At high unemployment rates, an increase in demand reduces...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014494995
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Macroeconomic forecasting and structural change
Gambetti, Luca; D’Agostino, Antonello; Giannone, Domenico - 2010
The aim of this paper is to assess whether explicitly modeling structural change increases the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts. We produce real time out-of-sample forecasts for inflation, the unemployment rate and the interest rate using a Time-Varying Coefficients VAR with Stochastic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605213
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Inflation/unemployment regimes and the instability of the Phillips curve
Ormerod, Paul; Rosewell, Bridget; Phelps, Peter - 2009
Using the statistical technique of fuzzy clustering, regimes of inflation and unemployment are explored for the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany between 1871 and 2009. We identify for each country three distinct regimes in inflation/unemployment space. There is considerable...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010299186
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Structural change out of agriculture: labor push versus labor pull
Alvarez-Cuadrado, Francisco; Poschke, Markus - 2009
The process of economic development is characterized by substantial rural-urban migrations and a decreasing share of agriculture in output and employment. The literature highlights two main engines behind this process of structural change: (i) improvements in agricultural technology combined...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010269344
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Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa und den USA unter Covid-19: Besser im Korsett einer Versicherungslogik eingeengt oder den Launen eines Präsidialsystems ausgeliefert?
Fischer, Georg; Schmid, Günther - 2020
sein als in den USA und Europa. Das gilt auch für die politischen Reaktionen: Während die EU-27 die Arbeitslosigkeit bisher … weitgehend durch massiven Einsatz von Kurzarbeit in Schach halten konnte, herrscht in den USA eine Massenarbeitslosigkeit, die an … die Große Weltwirtschaftskrise 1929/30 erinnert. Statt mit Kurzarbeit reagierten die USA u.a. mit massiven Sozialtransfers …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012254815
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Unemployment in Europe and the United States under COVID-19: Better constrained in the corset of an insurance logic or at the whim of a liberal presidential system?
Fischer, Georg; Schmid, Günther - 2021
sein als in den USA und Europa. Das gilt auch für die politischen Reaktionen: Während die 27 Mitgliedstaaten der … Schach halten konnte, herrschte in den USA zeitweilig eine Massenarbeits-losigkeit, die an die Große Weltwirtschaftskrise … 1929/1930 erinnerte. Statt mit Kurzarbeit reagierten die USA u.a. mit massiven Sozialtransfers für bestimmte Gruppen von …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482909
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Deutschland in der Stagnation festgefahren: Privater Konsum weiter unter dem Niveau von vor der Pandemie
Drygalla, Andrej; Exß, Franziska; Heinisch, Katja; … - In: Konjunktur aktuell 12 (2024) 1, pp. 1-31
erwarten sich die Anleger wohl Wachstumsimpulse von Innovationen auf dem Gebiet der Künstlichen Intelligenz. Für die USA kann … Gewerbes und industriepolitische Maßnahmen in den USA und in China, welche europäische Anbieter benachteiligen. Deutschland …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014583760
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Global financial transmission of monetary policy shocks
Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel - 2006
The paper shows that US monetary policy has been an important determinant of global equity markets. Analysing 50 equity markets worldwide, we find that returns fall on average around 3.8% in response to a 100 basis point tightening of US monetary policy, ranging from a zero response in some to a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604662