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Inflation Expectations, the Phillips Curve and Monetary Policy
Curto Millet, Fabien - 2007
quantitative surveys of consumers for a set of eight European countries. The rational perceptions hypothesis is tested and rejected …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010271069
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Does monetary policy credibility help in anchoring inflation expectations? Evidence from six inflation targeting emerging economies
Güler, Aslı - In: Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice 10 (2021) 1, pp. 93-111
data of six emerging inflation targeting economies (Turkey, Brazil, the Czech Republic, Chile, Poland, and South Africa …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014558525
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EU consumers' quantitative inflation perceptions and expectations: An evaluation
Arioli, Rodolfo; Bates, Colm; Dieden, Heinz; Duca, Ioana; … - 2017
This report updates and extends earlier assessments of quantitative inflation perceptions and expectations of consumers … Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys. Confirming earlier findings, consumers' quantitative estimates of … (2004-2015). The analysis shows that European consumers hold different opinions of inflation depending on their income, age …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011661912
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Evaluación del poder de predicción de las expectativas de inflación de los consumidores en México
Murillo, José Antonio; Sanchez Romeu, Paula - 2012
This paper introduces an indicator of consumers' inflation expectations based on data from the National Consumer … change in the responses and, thus, in the behavior of the indicator of consumers' inflation expectations. For this reason …, from October 2010 on the main use of this indicator is to be a reference of consumers' confidence in price stability. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010322541
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Oil prices and inflation forecasts
Bürgi, Constantin; Srivastava, Prachi; Whelan, Karl - 2023
We examine how people's forecasts for oil or gasoline prices influence their forecasts for broader inflation. We find little evidence from two US household surveys that people over-react to their beliefs about gasoline prices when formulating their forecasts about inflation, with much of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014540390
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Quantifying subjective uncertainty in survey expectations
Krüger, Fabian; Pavlova, Lora - 2020
Several recent surveys ask for a person's subjective probabilities that the in ation rate falls into various outcome ranges. We provide a new measure of the uncertainty implicit in such probabilities. The measure has several advantages over existing methods: It is robust, trivial to implement,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012196448
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Quantifying Subjective Uncertainty in Survey Expectations
Krüger, Fabian; Pavlova, Lora - 2020
Several recent surveys ask for a person's subjective probabilities that the inflation rate falls into various outcome ranges. We provide a new measure of the uncertainty implicit in such probabilities. The measure has several advantages over existing methods: It is robust, trivial to implement,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012263141
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Supply shocks and the persistence of inflation
Sommer, Martin - 2002
This paper examines the long-run effects of supply shocks (such as oil shocks) on inflation in the United States. The persistence of supply shocks in U.S. inflation fell considerably during the period of Volcker's disinflation (1979-1982). My empirical results suggest that the difference between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293489
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Inflation targeting, credibility and non-linear Taylor rules
Neuenkirch, Matthias; Tillmann, Peter - 2012
In this paper we systematically evaluate how central banks respond to inflation deviations from target. We present a stylized New Keynesian model in which agents' inflation expectations are sensitive to inflation deviations from target. To (re-)establish credibility, optimal monetary policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294449
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The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy
Gerberding, Christina - 2001
The present paper uses survey data on expected consumer price developments to analyse the role of inflation expectations in the inflation process. The survey measures of price expectations are derived from the European Commission's Consumer Survey and from the surveys of professional experts...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295707