Following the Euro changeover in January 2002, consumers across the Euro Area perceived a sharp rise in inflation, in … theory: (1) the extent of overestimation of inflation was strongly associated with subjective difficulty using the Euro; (2 …) there was a simultaneous downward shift in expected inflation. Our results imply that currency changeovers are not simple …

This paper examines the long-run effects of supply shocks (such as oil shocks) on inflation in the United States. The … persistence of supply shocks in U.S. inflation fell considerably during the period of Volcker's disinflation (1979-1982). My … the behavior of inflation expectations-agents expected shocks to persist in the pre-Volcker period, but not in the post …

A crucial but often ignored element of inflation expectations is the amount of perceived inflation risk. This paper …) using a new methodology. The main conclusion from our analysis is that, when monitoring inflation expectations, limiting … attention to a point prediction is not sufficient. The analysis of inflation expectations should take into account inflation …

Survey data on household expectations of inflation are routinely used in economic analysis, yet it is not clear to what … recovering households' implicit expectations of inflation from their consumption expenditures. We show that these implicit … expectations have predictive power for CPI inflation. They are better predictors of CPI inflation than survey responses, except for …

gemessener und wahrgenommener Inflation führen. Weiterhin wird untersucht, welche Personengruppen sich besonders von steigenden …In Europe and the U. S., official inflation rates reached a level of around 7 %-8 % in mid-2022. Based on survey data … for Germany, we show that there is a rising gap between the objective (administrative) inflation rate and the (subjective …

We examine how people's forecasts for oil or gasoline prices influence their forecasts for broader inflation. We find … their forecasts about inflation, with much of the evidence pointing towards under-reaction. We also show that the … little weight on their subjective forecasts for oil prices when making their forecasts for total inflation. …

This paper introduces an indicator of consumers' inflation expectations based on data from the National Consumer … Confidence Survey of Mexico (ENCO, in Spanish), and tests its predictive power over CPI inflation and other measures of inflation … between January 2003 and September 2010, the predictive capability of the indicator over the different measures of inflation …

Several recent surveys ask for a person's subjective probabilities that the inflation rate falls into various outcome …

-term interest rate into an expected inflation and an ex-ante real interest rate component. The latter may be a useful indicator of … rate series and the stationary component of the real interest rate is estimated and shocks to expected inflation and the ex …-ante real rate are identified using the long-run restriction that only shocks to expected inflation have long-run effects on the …