This paper examines the consequences of using "real-time" data for business cycle analysis in Germany based on a novel data set covering quarterly real output data from 1968 to 2001. Real-time output gaps are calculated. They differ considerably from their counterparts based on the most recent...

We report results on the ex ante predictability of monthly excess stock returns in Germany using real-time and revised macroeconomic data. Our real-time macroeconomic data cover the period 1994-2005. We report three results. 1) Real-time macroeconomic data did not contribute much to ex ante...

We propose a method for indentifying discretionary fiscal policy with real time data. The starting point is the observation that automatic stabilizers should depend on true GDP, while discretionary fiscal policy depends on the information that policy makers have in real time. We approximate the...

It is well known that information arrival has an impact on prices volatility, and trading volume in financial markets (see e.g., Goodhart and O?Hara 1997). Scheduled macroeconomic announcements, such as monthly employment figures, consumer prices, or building permits, stand out from the steady...

Mit dem Konjunkturtest, dem Innovationstest und dem Investitionstest des ifo Instituts liegt ein umfangreicher Datensatz der Unternehmen des verarbeitenden Gewerbes in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland vor. Die Daten dieser drei Umfragen wurden hier erstmals für einen längeren Zeitraum...

How do financial markets price new information? This paper analyzes price setting at the intersection of private and public information, by testing whether and how the reaction of financial markets to public signals depends on the relative importance of private information in agents’...

This paper seeks to understand the extent of New Zealand's exchange rate fluctuations compared to others, and what drives New Zealand's exchange rate. New Zealand has only experienced a limited number of exchange rate cycles since the dollar was floated. On a trade-weighted basis this paper...

This paper explores the impact of New Zealand's exchange rate variability on the tradable sector, and policy options for dampening exchange rate variability. It finds that exchange rate variability in the medium term is likely to have a negative impact on the tradable sector. However, the link...

In Krisenzeiten wie der aktuellen Corona-Pandemie ist der Bedarf an statistischen Daten am aktuellen Rand (Nowcast) zur frühzeitigen Abschätzung der wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen besonders hoch. Der neu entwickelte experimentelle Frühindikator zur Umsatzentwicklung aus den monatlichen...

Im Zuge der Corona-Pandemie hat das Statistische Bundesamt erstmals im August 2020 die neuen kalender- und saisonbereinigten monatlichen kassenmäßigen Steuereinnahmen veröffentlicht. Sie sind wichtige Indikatoren für die Finanzpolitik und die Konjunkturbeobachtung in Deutschland und...