We study the joint dynamics of macroeconomic variables, bond yields, and the exchange rate in an empirical two-country New-Keynesian model complemented with a no-arbitrage term structure model. With Canadian and US data, we are able to study the impact of macroeconomic shocks from both countries...

This paper analyzes the declining importance of political parties in the Central African Republic (CAR). It argues that the problematic attitude of elites who are fluctuating between violent and peaceful behavior in order to further their own careers is jeopardizing both peace and democracy. The...

Peace agreements form a crucial element of strategies to bring security from outside: they involve third-party mediators during the negotiation stage and often peacekeeping troops to guarantee the agreement at an implementation stage. Peace roundtables usually involve top politicians and...

Little attention has been paid to the factual effect of the state's security forces on the security of African citizens. Reports about security forces - contribution to widespread insecurity are frequent: the protectors become violators and their appearance causes fear, not security. In many...

Half a century after independence, African elites, at least those in conflict-ridden countries, often live in constant fear for their life. Real or invented coup attempts, political assassinations, beatings of opposition leaders, the distribution of death lists, etc. have a profoundly...

A new DIIS study presents an overview of the role of transit taxes levied at checkpoints in financing ongoing conflicts around the world. Compiling evidence from six different contexts, this DIIS Working Paper finds that in each of the conflicts, checkpoints form a key source of revenue for...

Seit dem gewaltsamen Tod von Präsident Idris Déby im April 2021 versucht die herrschende Elite im Tschad, ihre Macht durch die dynastische Nachfolge seines Sohnes Mahamat zu sichern. Mit dem Beschluss von Oktober 2022, den Übergangsprozess um zwei Jahre zu verlängern und Mahamat Déby...

This paper presents a simple model in which debt management stabilizes the debt-to-GDP ratio in face of shocks to real returns and output growth and thus supports fiscal restraint in ensuring sustainability. The optimal composition of public debt is derived by looking at the relative impact of...

A windfall of natural resource revenue (or foreign aid) faces government with choices of how to manage public debt, investment, and the distribution of funds for consumption, particularly if the windfall is both anticipated and temporary. We show that the permanent income hypothesis prescription...

We investigate the macroeconomic determinants of corporate spreads using a no-arbitrage technique. Structural shocks are identified by a New-Keynesian model. Treasury bonds are priced in an affine model with time-varying risk premia. Corporate bonds are priced in a reduced-form credit risk model...