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Lüders, Erik - 2002

Starting from an information process governed by a geometric Brownian motion we show that asset returns are predictable if the elasticity of the pricing kernel is not constant. Declining [Increasing] elasticity of the pricing kernel leads to mean reversion and negatively autocorrelated asset...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010297953

Finite sample of the Durbin-Watson test against fractionally integrated disturbances

Kleiber, Christian; Krämer, Walter - 2004

We consider the finite sample power of various tests against serial correlation in the disturbances of a linear regression when these disturbances follow a stationary long memory process. It emerges that the power depends on the form of the regressor matrix and that, for the Durbin-Watson test...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010306236

Can we make money with fifth-order autocorrelation in Japanese stock prices?

Tsutsui, Yoshiro; Hirayama, Kenjiro; Tanaka, Takahiro; … - 2005

We first report that one-minute returns on TOPIX have exhibited significant autocorrelation at five-minute intervals … jump in excess of a predetermined band seem to be the source of this autocorrelation, since these have been updated at five …-minute intervals since August 1998. Individual stock returns also exhibit fifth-order autocorrelation, but this disappears when the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010332467

Combination Schemes for Turning Point Predictions

Billio, Monica; Casarin, Roberto; Ravazzolo, Francesco; … - 2011

We propose new forecast combination schemes for predicting turning points of business cycles. The combination schemes deal with the forecasting performance of a given set of models and possibly providing better turning point predictions. We consider turning point predictions generated by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326189

Why Do Asset Prices Not Follow Random Walks?

Franke, Günter; Lüders, Erik - 2004

This paper analyzes the effect of non-constant elasticity of the pricing kernel on asset return characteristics in a rational expectations model. It is shown that declining elasticity of the pricing kernel can lead to predictability of asset returns and high and persistent volatility. Also,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263423

The role of the log transformation in forecasting economic variables

Luetkepohl, Helmut; Xu, Fang - 2009

For forecasting and economic analysis many variables are used in logarithms (logs). In time series analysis this transformation is often considered to stabilize the variance of a series. We investigate under which conditions taking logs is beneficial for forecasting. Forecasts based on the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264593

Forecasting nonlinear aggregates and aggregates with time-varying weights

Luetkepohl, Helmut - 2010

Despite the fact that many aggregates are nonlinear functions and the aggregation weights of many macroeconomic aggregates are time-varying, much of the literature on forecasting aggregates considers the case of linear aggregates with fixed, time-invariant aggregation weights. In this study a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270456

Does accounting for spatial effects help forecasting the growth of Chinese provinces?

Girardin, Eric; Kholodilin, Konstantin Arkadievich - 2009

In this paper, we make multi-step forecasts of the annual growth rates of the real GRP for each of the 31 Chinese provinces simultaneously. Beside the usual panel data models, we use panel models that explicitly account for spatial dependence between the GRP growth rates. In addition, the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274376

Variable selection and inference for multi-period forecasting problems

Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem; Pick, Andreas; Timmermann, Allan - 2009

This paper conducts a broad-based comparison of iterated and direct multi-step forecasting approaches applied to both univariate and multivariate models. Theoretical results and Monte Carlo simulations suggest that iterated forecasts dominate direct forecasts when estimation error is a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276226

On the advantages of disaggregated data: Insights from forecasting the US economy in a data-rich environment

Perevalov, Nikita; Maier, Philipp - 2010

The good forecasting performance of factor models has been well documented in the literature. While many studies focus on a very limited set of variables (typically GDP and inflation), this study evaluates forecasting performance at disaggregated levels to examine the source of the improved...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010279898

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