This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the … change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steadystate inflation and inflation … can achieve lower inflation uncertainty by lowering the inflation rate. …

This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the … policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steady-state inflation and … inflation uncertainty have declined steadily since the inception of EMU, whilst short-run uncertainty has increased, mainly …

money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of … contains relevant information for inflation in some model classes. Money-based New Keynesian DSGE models and VARs incorporating …

This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the … policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steady-state inflation and … inflation uncertainty have declined steadily since the inception of EMU, whilst short-run uncertainty has increased, mainly …

Any measure of unobserved inflation uncertainty relies on specific assumptions which are most likely not fulfilled … indicator for inflation uncertainty. Moreover, the idiosyncratic component of survey disagreement contains systematic … that higher inflation is followed by higher uncertainty. By contrast, we obtain contradictory results for the individual …

We use Bayesian estimation techniques to investigate whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the United States … including money growth in simple VAR models of inflation does systematically improve out-of-sample forecasting accuracy. This …. However, the contribution of money to inflation forecasting accuracy is quantitatively limited and tends to be smaller in …

striking negative correlation between the evolution of the long-run coefficient on inflation in the monetary rule and the … evolution of the persistence and predictability of inflation relative to a trend component. Using a standard sticky-price model …, we show that a more aggressive policy stance towards inflation causes a decline in inflation predictability, providing a …

macroeconomic forecasts. We produce real time out-of-sample forecasts for inflation, the unemployment rate and the interest rate … predictions for the three variables. In particular for inflation the TV-VAR outperforms, in terms of mean square forecast error … also shown to hold over the most recent period in which it has been hard to forecast inflation. …