This paper proposes a discrete-time hazard regression approach based on the interrelation between hazard rate models and excess over threshold models, which are frequently encountered in extreme value modelling. The proposed duration model incorporates a grouped-duration analogue of the...

Aiming to explore how the survival of trade flows has evolved over time, we analyze a rich data set of detailed imports to individual EU15 countries from 140 non-EU exporters, covering the period 1962-2006. We find that short duration is a persistent characteristic of trade throughout the...

When analyzing panel data using regression models, it is often reasonable to allow for time-varying covariate effects. We propose a novel approach to modelling timevarying coefficients in panel data regressions, which is based on penalized regression techniques. To illustrate the usefulness of...

The objective of this paper is twofold. First, against the background of an existing empirical literature on the duration of trade which has found that international trade is often of strikingly short duration, we aim to establish whether or not EU imports from the rest of the world also are...

Aiming to explore how the survival of trade flows has evolved over time, we analyze a rich data set of detailed imports to individual EU15 countries from 140 non-EU exporters, covering the period 1962-2006. We find that short duration is a persistent characteristic of trade throughout the...

The recent literature on the duration of trade has predominantly analyzed the determinants of trade flow durations using Cox proportional hazards models. The purpose of this paper is to show why it is inappropriate to analyze the duration of trade with continuous-time models such as the Cox...

When analyzing panel data using regression models, it is often reasonable to allow for time-varying covariate effects. We propose a novel approach to modelling timevarying coefficients in panel data regressions, which is based on penalized regression techniques. To illustrate the usefulness of...

Standard international trade lectures normally comprises three central theories: the Ricardian Model, the Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson Modell and New Trade Theory a la Krugman 1979 and 1980. Nowadays this trilogy needs to be enhanced with the basic concepts of a new class of trade models: the New...

The research project WWWforEurope undertakes to lie the theoretical and empirical foundations for the embarkment on a new socio-ecological growth path in Europe. The new path underlines the need to guarantee Welfare as a broad universal principle for its population, assuring economic and social...

There are large differences between Steindl's ideas on growth policies and the Brussels/Paris consensus. Steindl called for innovation and education policies, the mainstream today rather favours deregulation and privatisation. Steindl stressed the positive demand-side effects of the public...