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mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test, ARDL model, and alternative volatility models … price while the volatility of global fertilizer prices and crude oil price from March to December 2008 are higher than in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326493
direction of company-specific news. Information-implied reactions in returns, volatility as well as liquidity demand and supply … London Stock Exchange (LSE), we find market-wide robust news-dependent responses in volatility and trading volume. However …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010303687
direction of company-specific news. Information-implied reactions in returns, volatility as well as liquidity demand and supply … London Stock Exchange (LSE), we find market-wide robust news-dependent responses in volatility and trading volume. However …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270815
The unparalleled surge of the crude oil price after 2003 has triggered a heated scientific and public debate about its ultimate causes. Unexpected demand growth particularly from emerging economies appears to be the most prominently supported reason among academics. We study the price dynamics...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011753232
Whether fiscal policy is sustainable depends on a government's future revenue and expenditure streams, both of which are highly uncertain. In commodity-rich countries, this problem is intensified by unpredictable and volatile commodity prices. We show how spending rules for oil income and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010325791
geometric Brownian motion. Finally, we derive pricing bounds for convertible bonds in an uncertain volatility model, i.e. when … the volatility of the firm value process lies between two extreme values. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270423
bounds for convertible bonds are derived in an uncertain volatility model, i.e. when the volatility of the stock price …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270426
In this paper, we examine the evolution of the S&P500 returns volatility around market crashes using a Markov …-Switching model. We find that volatility typically switches into the high volatility state well before a crash and remains in the high … volatility by uniformed traders result in a crash. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294846
We investigate the predictability of both volatility and volume for a large sample of Japanese stocks. The particular … practically always improves upon the na?ve forecast provided by historical volatility. As a somewhat surprising result, we also …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294979
Bayesian forecasting of volatility. However, applicability of MLE is restricted to cases with a discrete distribution of … volatility components. From a practical point of view, ML also becomes computationally unfeasible for large numbers of components … forecasts which in principle is applicable for any continuous distribution with any number of volatility components. Monte Carlo …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295106