Estimates of cyclically-adjusted budget balances, correcting actual government budget balances for business cycle fluctuations, are produced by many institutions, including the European Commission, the IMF and the OECD. This paper presents an alternative approach for the cyclical adjustment of...

This paper reviews the existing empirical evidence on the short-term impact on prices of fiscal variables and assesses it against new results from harmonised simulations, conducted with six well-established econometric models used by the ECB and five national central banks (NCBs) of the...

In this paper, we present a disaggregated framework for the analysis of past and projected structural developments in the most relevant revenue and expenditure categories and the fiscal balance. The framework, in particular, distinguishes between the effects of discretionary fiscal policy and of...

In this paper, we present a disaggregated framework for the analysis of past and projected structural developments in the most relevant revenue and expenditure categories and the fiscal balance. The framework, in particular, distinguishes between the effects of discretionary fiscal policy and of...

In this paper we analyse the wage price relationship of an economy in transition characterized by important structural changes. It is known (see Perron 1989) that structural breaks in stationary time series can induce apparent unit roots. The stationarity analysis of the series employed in the...

Coloro che devono prendere decisioni di natura economica spesso si trovano di fronte il problema di quantificare il futuro. Scopo del presente lavoro è quello di indicare una possibile via da seguire per rispondere alle necessità di previsioni di breve periodo per produzione,prezzi e moneta....

The aim of this paper is to model the impact of exchange rate both inlation and unemployment variables in economics which are characterized by important structural changes, i.e. A transition phase moving from centralised economies towards market economies. This phenomeno, which is common to east...

A quarant'anni dalla sua introduzione, la curva di Phillips riveste ancora un ruolo importante negli studi applicati, nonostante le critiche cui è stata sottoposta dalla successiva letteratura. In questo lavoro, utilizzando tecniche di modellazione econometrica di serie storiche non stazionarie...

In previous studies concerning short and long run relationships for price-wage models, the cointegration analysis has been developed assuming the existence of a unique cointegration parametrisation. These empirical results reveal the presence of significant relationships, both in the short and...

In this paper we use the unit root test at both individual company (Dickey-Fuller) and panel (Im-Pesaran-Shin) level, in order to provide some quantitative evidence of the univariate behaviour of Italian companies' debt-ratio. If it is mean-reverting, then at least a share of companies are going...