Estimates of cyclically-adjusted budget balances, correcting actual government budget balances for business cycle fluctuations, are produced by many institutions, including the European Commission, the IMF and the OECD. This paper presents an alternative approach for the cyclical adjustment of...

This paper reviews the existing empirical evidence on the short-term impact on prices of fiscal variables and assesses it against new results from harmonised simulations, conducted with six well-established econometric models used by the ECB and five national central banks (NCBs) of the...

In this paper, we present a disaggregated framework for the analysis of past and projected structural developments in the most relevant revenue and expenditure categories and the fiscal balance. The framework, in particular, distinguishes between the effects of discretionary fiscal policy and of...

In this paper, we present a disaggregated framework for the analysis of past and projected structural developments in the most relevant revenue and expenditure categories and the fiscal balance. The framework, in particular, distinguishes between the effects of discretionary fiscal policy and of...

How did post-communist transformations affect people's perceptions of their economic and political systems? We model a pseudo-panel with 89 country-year clusters, based on 13 countries observed between 1991 and 2004, to identify the macro and institutional drivers of the public opinion. Our main...

Inflation in Central and East European countries varied considerably over the transition phase, and econometric relationships between prices, money, wages and exchange rates are said to have been unstable during this period. In order to shed some light on the issue, this paper analyses some...

In 1991, the rate of inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland was between 35% and 70%. At the end of 2001, it is below 8%. We setup a small structural macro model of these economies to explain the process of disinflation. Contrary to a widespread skepticism, which permeated a large...

In this paper we analyse the wage price relationship of an economy in transition characterized by important structural changes. It is known (see Perron 1989) that structural breaks in stationary time series can induce apparent unit roots. The stationarity analysis of the series employed in the...

Coloro che devono prendere decisioni di natura economica spesso si trovano di fronte il problema di quantificare il futuro. Scopo del presente lavoro è quello di indicare una possibile via da seguire per rispondere alle necessità di previsioni di breve periodo per produzione,prezzi e moneta....

The aim of this paper is to model the impact of exchange rate both inlation and unemployment variables in economics which are characterized by important structural changes, i.e. A transition phase moving from centralised economies towards market economies. This phenomeno, which is common to east...