This paper describes a method for solving a class of forward-looking Markov-switching Rational Expectations models under noisy measurement, by specifying the unobservable expectations component as a general-measurable function of the observable states of the system, to be determined optimally...

Contrary to static mean-variance analysis, very few papers have dealt with dynamic mean-variance analysis. Here, the mean-variance efficient self-financing portfolio strategy is derived for n risky assets in discrete and continuous time. In the discrete setting, the resulting portfolio is...

Many seasonal macroeconomic time series are subject to changes in their means and variances over a long time horizon. In this paper we propose a general treatment for the modelling of time-varying features in economic time series. We show that time series models with mean and variance functions...

We explore a new approach to the forecasting of macroeconomic variables based on a dynamic factor state space analysis. Key economic variables are modeled jointly with principal components from a large time series panel of macroeconomic indicators using a multivariate unobserved components time...

An attempt is made to estimate a state space model of investment and borrowing in a Bayesian framework and extract the unobservable agency cost of Japanese firms by firm size. Our estimates of the agency cost exhibited a declining trend in the late 80s and then switched to an increasing trend in...

This paper presents a new framework allowing strategic investors to generate yield curve projections contingent on expectations about future macroeconomic scenarios. By consistently linking the shape and location of yield curves to the state of the economy our method generates predictions for...

This paper offers several contributions to actual research and discussion on monetary policy. It clarifies the relationship between uncertainty of inflation persistence and optimal monetary policy and discusses the consequences of the recent Blanchard proposal to implement a higher inflation...

The paper deals with the analysis of a special dynamic production and inventory model. In this model logical restrictions to fulfill an accepted constant minimal level of the production lot size are incorporated, instead of keeping setup cost in the objective function, as it is common in many...

This paper continues the analysis of a special uncapacitated single item lot sizing problem where a minimum order quantity restriction, instead of the setup cost, guarantees a certain level of production lots. A detailed analysis of the model and an investigation of the particularities of the...

This paper explores a single-item capacitated lot sizing problem with minimum order quantity, which plays the role of minor set-up cost. We work out the necessary and suffcient solvability conditions and apply the general dynamic programming technique to develop an O(T³) exact algorithm that is...