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In this paper we analyze how the availability of credit influences the relationship between government size as a proxy for fiscal stabilization policy and the amplitude of business cycle fluctuations in a sample of advanced OECD countries. Interpreting relatively low loan-tovalue ratios as an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294478
Stylized facts suggest that output volatility in OECD countries has declined in recent years. However, the causes and … structural breaks in the dynamics and the volatility of the real output process in Germany can be detected. We report evidence … that output volatility has declined in Germany. Yet, this decline in output volatility is not as clear-cut as it is in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260526
Identifying business cycle stylised facts is essential as these often form the basis for the construction and validation of theoretical business cycle models. Furthermore, understanding the cyclical patterns in economic activity, and their causes, is important to the decisions of both...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010280739
We analyse the decline in output volatility in Germany. A lower level of variance in an autoregressive model of output … error term variance (reduced impulses). In Germany the decline output volatility is due to a decline in the persistence of … sudden break. The evolution of Germany's short-term real interest rate volatility coincides with the change of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274489
Developing countries are constrained in financing current account deficits as real capital mobility is still far from perfect. At the same time, capital flows to these countries proved to be extremely volatile. The paper argues that the long-term problem of "too little" should not be confused...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010265491
and it hence lowers the volatility of output. Technological complexity evolves endogenously in response to profit …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604597
. The new insight is that an expansion in the number of varieties also lowers the volatility of output. This is because …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010286316
volatility of aid on economic growth, controlling for the level of aid. A four-year panel analysis is conducted encompassing 155 … countries over the period 1966-2001. We find that once the volatility of aid is controlled for, aid has a positive impact on … economic growth. Correspondingly, volatility of aid flows is found to be negatively related to growth. We found no significant …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010325781
What is the relationship between economic growth and its volatility? Does political instability affect growth directly … or indirectly, through volatility? This paper tries to answer such questions using a power-ARCH framework with annual … legislative changes) has an indirect (through volatility) negative impact. We also find preliminary support for the idea that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010268236
, output volatility, and economic growth, using a large cross-section of 88 countries over the period 1960 to 2004 … results: First, both pro- and countercyclical fiscal policy amplify output volatility, much in a way like pure fiscal shocks … that are unrelated to the cycle. Second, output volatility, due to variations in cyclical and discretionary fiscal policy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264336