. In a positive inflation environment, however, both real spot and real forward rates might well become negative, but …

Output growth, investment and the real interest rate in long run evidence tend to be negatively affected by inflation …. Theoretically, inflation acts as a human capital tax that decreases output growth and the real interest rate, but increases the …. Inflation then decreases the investment rate, and still decreases both output growth and real interest up to some moderately …

Output growth, investment and the real interest rate are all found empirically to be negatively affected by inflation …. But a seeming puzzle arises of opposite Tobin-like inflation effects because theory indicates a negative Tobin effect when … investment falls and a positive Tobin effect when the real interest rate rises. We define inflation's Tobin effect more …

last two years, can well be explained. Alongside the more traditional macroeconomic determinants like core inflation …

money shall not be exceeded and if the target for inflation shall be achieved. Furthermore, the differences in growth rates … levels during the past decade. Finally, it is analyzed why inflation rates have differed in recent years. The main reason … differences can also be expected for the future, inflation rates will not be equal, i.e., there will also be changes in real …

cointegration linking interest rates and inflation, and stationarity of the real interest rate implying in turn homogeneity of the … relate key model parameters on economic states, as e.g. periods of higher vs. lower inflation or inflation risk. From the … evidence in favor of cointegration is weak over periods of high inflation. The Fisher coefficient turns out to be remarkably …

This document analyzes inflation, exchange rate, interest rate, and GDP growth forecasts from the monthly Survey of … relative performance using as benchmarks forecasts from time series models and from other macroeconomic variables. Inflation … be better, in mean squared error terms, than the benchmark forecasts, except for the case of one-yearahead inflation. In …

macroeconomic forecasts. We produce real time out-of-sample forecasts for inflation, the unemployment rate and the interest rate … predictions for the three variables. In particular for inflation the TV-VAR outperforms, in terms of mean square forecast error … also shown to hold over the most recent period in which it has been hard to forecast inflation. …

We analyze empirical links between the perceived tail-risk of inflation, the policy rate, longer-term interest rates … always in reaction to Fed announcements; and, (v) our impulse responses demonstrate that odds of extreme inflation outcomes …