This paper develops a framework for assessing systemic risks and for predicting (out-of-sample) systemic events, i.e. periods of extreme financial instability with potential real costs. We test the ability of a wide range of “stand alone” and composite indicators in predicting systemic...

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, numerous high-income countries encountered heightened vacancy rates and labour shortages, which persisted into 2023. This paper examines the dynamics underlying labour market fluctuations in advanced economies, such as cyclical movements, structural shifts...

A slanted-L curve is well-suited to represent the non-linearity of the celebrated Phillips curve. We show this using cross-country data of major industrialized economies since 2009, including the inflationary surge of the 2020s. At high unemployment rates, an increase in demand reduces...

Milton Friedman's contributions to and influence on macroeconomics are discussed, beginning with his work on the consumption function and the demand for money, not to mention monetary history, which helped to undermine the post World War 2 Keynesian consensus in the area. His inter-related...

In this paper, we explore a dynamical version of by Aoki and Yoshikawa model (AYM) for an economy driven by demand. We show that when an appropriate Markovian dynamics is taken into account, AYM has different equilibrium distributions depending on the form of transition probabilities. In the...

A large market economy has a huge number of degrees of freedom with weak microlevel coordination. The 'implicit microfoundations' approach assumes this property of micro-level interactions more strongly conditions macro-level outcomes compared to the precise details of individual choice...

In this paper, the authors explore a dynamical version of the Aoki and Yoshikawa model (AYM) for an economy driven by demand. They show that when an appropriate Markovian dynamics is taken into account, the AYM has different equilibrium distributions depending on the form of transition...

A large market economy has a huge number of degrees of freedom with weak microlevel coordination. The 'implicit microfoundations' approach considers this property of micro-level interactions to more strongly determine macro-level outcomes compared to the precise details of individual choice...

Recent economic crisis started from the American Housing. In 2005, the price of housing started to grow and for gaining more profit, the banks inclined to housing and provided applicants with lots of facilities. With the burst of price bubbles, intense reduction of prices occurred in the housing...

The book offers a compehensive account of traditional and more recent developments in macroeconomic theory. It is written primarily for students at the intermediate level.