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Gauging the effects of fiscal stimulus packages in the euro area

Coenen, Günter; Straub, Roland; Trabandt, Mathias - 2012

We seek to quantify the impact on euro area GDP of the European Economic Recovery Plan (EERP) enacted in response to the financial crisis of 2008-09. To do so, we estimate an extended version of the ECB’s New Area-Wide Model with a richly specified fiscal sector. The estimation results point...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605528

Forecasting with DSGE models

Christoffel, Kai; Warne, Anders; Coenen, Günter - 2010

In this paper we review the methodology of forecasting with log-linearised DSGE models using Bayesian methods. We focus on the estimation of their predictive distributions, with special attention being paid to the mean and the covariance matrix of h-step ahead forecasts. In the empirical...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605231

Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area: a summary of the Inflation Persistence Network evidence

Altissimo, Filippo; Ehrmann, Michael; Smets, Frank - 2006

This paper provides a summary of current knowledge on inflation persistence and price stickiness in the euro area, based on research findings that have been produced in the context of the Inflation Persistence Network. The main findings are: i) Under the current monetary policy regime, the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011506617

Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area – a summary of the IPN evidence

Altissimo, Filippo; Ehrmann, Michael; Smets, Frank - 2006

This paper provides a summary of current knowledge on inflation persistence and price stickiness in the euro area, based on research findings that have been produced in the context of the Inflation Persistence Network. The main findings are - i) Under the current monetary policy regime, the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011606198

Comparing monetary policy rules in a small open economy framework: An empirical analysis using Bayesian techniques

Eschenhof, Sabine - 2009

This paper examines the role of exchange rate changes in the monetary policy for the Euro Area. Moreover, it compares different Taylor-type policy rules with respect to the numerical results as well as the impulse responses to exogenous shocks and the fit of the different data model...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010272252

Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs

Berger, Helge; Österholm, Pär - 2007

We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly strong evidence that including money...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010321554

Warum die Volkswirtschaften der Eurozone den USA und Großbritannien seit der Finanzkrise hinterherhinken: Zur Rolle von Unterschieden in der Geld- und Fiskalpolitik

Heimberger, Philipp - 2016

Finanzkrise im Vergleich von Eurozone, USA und Großbritannien. Die Eurozone erholte sich seit 2010 deutlich schleppender als die … Wirtschaftsräume wird in zwei Dimensionen analysiert; zum einen anhand eines Überblicks zur Geldpolitik der EZB nach dem Ausbruch der … Ergebnis ist, dass der restriktivere Mix aus Geld- und Fiskalpolitik in der Eurozone die im Vergleich zu den USA und …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012100198

An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area

Smets, Frank; Wouters, Raf - 2002

This paper develops and estimates a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with sticky prices and wages for the euro area. The model incorporates various other features such as habit formation, costs of adjustment in capital accumulation and variable capacity utilisation. It is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011506557

Forecasting with a Bayesian DSGE Model: an application to the euro area

Smets, Frank; Wouters, Raf - 2004

In monetary policy strategies geared towards maintaining price stability conditional and unconditional forecasts of inflation and output play an important role. In this paper we illustrate how modern sticky-price dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, estimated using Bayesian...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011506582

Convergence and anchoring of yield curves in the euro area

Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel; Gürkaynak, Refet S. - 2007

We study the convergence of European bond markets and the anchoring of inflation expectations in euro area countries using high-frequency bond yield data for France, Germany, Italy and Spain. We find that Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has led to substantial convergence in euro area sovereign...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604863