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react in a timely fashion to changes in the environment, leading to real-time forecast improvements relative to other … methods of density forecast combination, such as Bayesian model averaging, optimal (static) pools, and equal weights. We show …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011340986
This study develops a new monthly euro Area‐wide Leading Indicator (ALI) for the euro area business cycle. It derives the composite ALI by applying a deviation cycle methodology with a one‐sided band pass filter and choosing nine leading series. Our main findings are that i) the applied...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605292
Das ifo Institut begleitet seit seiner Gründung im Jahr 1949 das aktuelle Wirtschaftsgeschehen durch seine regelmäßigen Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturprognosen. Im Jahr 2007 hat das ifo Institut zur methodischen Basis seiner Konjunkturforschung einen ersten Sammelband mit ausgewählten...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011698425
In this paper we develop a small open economy model explaining the joint determination of output, inflation, interest rates, unemployment and the exchange rate in a multi-country framework. Our model - the Halle Economic Projection Model (HEPM) - is closely related to studies recently published...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010271586
forecast combination literature, the effects of model and estimation uncertainty on forecast outcomes are examined by pooling …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276220
-run forecast horizons. The model is shown to be capable of predicting turning points and usable for policy analysis under different …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011776817
. Building on the forecast combination literature, the paper examines the effects of model and estimation uncertainty on forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010283542
The term now-casting is a contraction for now and forecasting and has been used for a long-time in meteorology and recently also in economics. In this paper we survey recent developments in economic now-casting with special focus on those models that formalize key features of how market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605609
, without the need to explicitly model it. We document that anchoring delivers large and significant gains in forecast accuracy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605677
monthly indicators for the nowcast and forecast of quarterly GDP growth. Amongst the latter, we consider small bridge … equations and forecast equations in which the bridging between monthly and quarterly data is achieved through a regression on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011606236