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This paper first shows that the forecast error incurred when assuming that future inflation will be equal to the inflation target announced by the central bank is typically at least as small and often smaller than forecast errors of model-based and published inflation forecasts. It then shows...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604610
extent to which inflation expectations are formed by the announced targets. As the credibility of the central bank increases … target. Credibility enables expectation to be formed in a forward-looking way by weakening its connection with the past. This … study aims to contribute to the literature concerning the effects of credibility on monetary policy. For this purpose, using …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014558525
This paper shows that the credibility gain from permanently committing to a fixed exchange rate by joining the European … credibility a pegged exchange rate regime yields a lower loss compared to an inflation targeting policy, even if this policy … ranking would be reversed in a fullcredibility environment. There exists an initial stock of credibility that must be achieved …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604562
-)establish credibility, optimal monetary policy under discretion is shown to set higher interest rates today if average inflation exceeded … term in the central bank's optimal instrument rule, which we refer to as the credibility loss. Augmenting a standard Taylor … seven central banks and that this influence is economically meaningful. A deteroriation in credibility forces central …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294449
Two signaling games of monetary policy are considered: game one examines the effect of hysteresis on the labor market on the results of the repeated monetary policy game. Disciplinary effects of reputation disappear in presence of hysteresis. The second game compares weifare effects of monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010397973
macroeconomic environment. We find that central bank credibility is negatively associated with the level of inflation target …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010322261
We analyse the interaction between private agents? uncertainty about inflation target and the central bank's data uncertainty. In our model, private agents update their perceived inflation target and the central bank estimates unobservable economic shocks as well as the perceived inflation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295855
“Forecast targeting,” forward-looking monetary policy that uses central-bank judgment to construct optimal policy projections of the target variables and the instrument rate, may perform substantially better than monetary policy that disregards judgment and follows a given instrument rule....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604522
This paper aims to devise a monetary policy instrument rule that is suitable for open economies undergoing monetary convergence to a common currency area. The open-economy convergence-consistent Taylor rule is forward-looking, consistent with monetary framework based on inflation targeting,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011430801
The model of the Russian economy that was formed in the 2000s does not match a new stable growth path, though it helped to calmly overcome the crisis of 2008 and 2009. The state needs to provide stability in the fields under its direct control, i.e. the budgetary and monetary policies. In the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011430898