The empirical performance of macroeconomic exchange rate models is more than disappointing. This dismal result is also reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat naïve random walk forecasts. The root for this deficient...

The following paper is a theoretical introduction of the misinformation effect to behavioural finance. The misinformation effect causes a memory report regarding an event or particular knowledge to become contaminated with misleading information from another source. The paper aims to describe...

There is a need to find better models and indicators for large disruptive events, not least in order to be more prepared and mitigate their effects. In this paper we take a step in this direction and discuss the performance of a financial stress indicator with a specific focus on the euro area....

This paper examines the puzzlingly high unexploited momentum returns from a new perspective. We analyze characteristics of momentum traders in a sample of 692 fund managers. We find that momentum traders are 'defined' by their short-term horizon, by a behavioural view on the market and by a...

The study analyses the characteristics of professional exchange rate forecasts for the €/US-$ rate. The results indicate that the quality of forecasts produced by profes-sional economists is rather poor and incompatible with the rational expectations hy-pothesis. This dismal result is...

Using data on Government of Canada securities auctions, this paper shows that in countries where direct access to primary issuance is restricted to government securities dealers, Order-flow" information is a key source of private information for these security dealers. Order-flow information is...

The real estate investment trust (REIT) industry experienced a liquidity crisis resulting from reduced access to credit commitments as banks were restoring their balance sheets during the 2007-2009 financial crisis. Employing generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH)...

We empirically evaluate a behavioural model with boundedly rational traders who disagree about the persistence of deviations from the fundamental stock price. Fundamentalist traders believe in mean-reversion, while chartists extrapolate trends. Agents gradually switch between the two rules,...

This essay looks at the bidirectional relationship between financial history and financial economics. It begins by giving a brief history of financial economics by outlining the main topics of interest to financial economists. It then documents and explains the increasing influence of financial...

Foreign exchange markets are the biggest financial markets on the globe, the dollar-euro market is the biggest among them with a daily turnover of $1.3 trillion. This market is the interface of the euro bloc and the dollar bloc which use mainly one of the major currencies, comprising 45-60% and...