Various inflation forecasting models are compared using a simulated out-of-sample forecasting framework. We focus on … the question of whether monetary aggregates are useful for forecasting inflation, but unlike previous work we examine a …

Using the statistical technique of fuzzy clustering, regimes of inflation and unemployment are explored for the United … inflation/unemployment space. There is considerable similarity across the countries in both the regimes themselves and in the … timings of the transitions between regimes. However, the typical rates of inflation and unemployment experienced in the …

assumptions on the functional correspondence between price inflation, inflation expectations and marginal costs. Expectations are … not assumed to be an unbiased predictor of actual inflation and instead derived from the European Commission’s Consumer … Survey data. The results suggest that expectations drive inflation with a lag of about 6 months, which casts further doubt on …

This paper offers a reappraisal of the inflation-unemployment tradeoff, based on "frictional growth," describing the … able to work themselves out fully. In this context, monetary shocks have a gradual and delayed effect on inflation and … permanent nominal rigidities, and no departure from rational expectations, there is a long-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff. …

This paper examines inflation dynamics in the Unites States since 1960, with a particular focus on the Great Recession …. A puzzle emerges when Phillips curves estimated over 1960- 2007 are used to predict inflation over 2008-2010: inflation … by theories of costly price adjustment: we measure core inflation with the median CPI inflation rate, and we allow the …

We specify an empirical model of US inflation which has the dynamics of wage and price setting at its core. In the … studies of pandemic-era inflation have confirmed that shocks to energy prices were important, but have not included imported … inflation more broadly. Estimation and simulation results indicate that wage growth was strongly affected early in the pandemic …

Previous studies have interpreted the rise and fall of U.S. inflation after World War II in terms of the Fed's changing … the low-inflation policy recommended by a natural rate model even after economists had developed statistical evidence … inflation rate in light of updated probabilities that it assigns to three competing models of the Phillips curve. Cautious …

This paper offers a reappraisal of the inflation-unemployment tradeoff, based on ?frictional growth,? describing the … expectations, there is a long-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff. Our empirical analysis suggests that this Phillips curve may be … reasonably flat. We show that the persistence of inflation and unemployment, in response to monetary policy shocks, is related to …

This paper explores the question to what extent non-domestic factors provide an explanation of US inflation over the … last three decades. Are lagged dependent variables - traditionally interpreted as proxies for inflation expectations - just … estimated for the USA. The results show that crude oil prices, which basically are world market prices, have exerted a strong …