In this article we examine how model selection in neural networks can be guided by statistical procedures such as hypotheses tests, information criteria and cross validation. The application of these methods in neural network models is discussed, paying attention especially to the identification...

It is standard in applied work to select forecasting models by ranking candidate models by their prediction mean square error (PMSE) in simulated ou-of-sample (SOOS) forecasts. Alternatively, forecast models may be selected using information criteria (IC). We compare the asymptotic and...

Picking one ‘winner’ model for researching a certain phenomenon while discarding the rest implies a confidence that may misrepresent the evidence. Multimodel inference allows researchers to more accurately represent their uncertainty about which model is ‘best’. But multimodel inference,...

As mixture regression models increasingly receive attention from both theory and practice, the question of selecting the correct number of segments gains urgency. A misspecification can lead to an under- or oversegmentation, thus resulting in flawed management decisions on customer targeting or...

Der folgende Beitrag befasst sich mit dem Problem der Modellselektion im Finite Mixture Partial Least Squares (FIMIX-PLS)-Ansatz. Dieser Ansatz, welcher der Methodengruppe der Mischverteilungsmodelle zuzuordnen ist, ermöglicht eine simultane Schätzung der Modellparameter bei gleichzeitiger...

The S&P500 or DAX30 are important benchmarks for the financial industry. The first mimics the performance of the major US on the NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ, while the second does the same for the German Prime Share sector. These and other indices describe different compositions of certain segments of...

The CRIX (CRyptocurrency IndeX) has been constructed based on approximately 30 cryptos and captures high coverage of available market capitalisation. The CRIX index family covers a range of cryptos based on di erent liquidity rules and various model selection criteria. Details of ECRIX (Exact...

Crypto-currencies have developed a vibrant market since bitcoin, the rst crypto-currency, was created in 2009. We look at the properties of cryptocurrencies as financial assets in a broad cross-section. We discuss approaches of altcoins to generate value and their trading and information...

This paper suggests solutions to two different types of simulation errors related to Quasi-Monte Carlo integration. Likelihood functions which depend on standard deviations of mixed parameters are symmetric in nature. This paper shows that antithetic draws preserve this symmetry and thereby...

It is standard practice by researchers and the default option in many statistical programs to base test statistics for mixed models on simulations using asymmetric draws (e.g. Halton draws). This paper shows that when the estimated likelihood functions depend on standard deviations of mixed...